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Europa und Indien: Neustart in einer in Schieflage geratenen Handelsbeziehung

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriel Felbermayr
  • Devashish Mitra
  • Rahel Aichele
  • Jasmin Katrin Gröschl

Abstract

Seit Juni 2007 verhandeln die EU und Indien über ein umfassendes Freihandelsabkommen, die Verhandlungen ruhen jedoch seit dem Jahr 2013. Nichtsdestotrotz haben beide Seiten ihren Willen geäußert, die Gespräche zu einem umfassenden Handels- und Investitionsvereinbarung (BTIA) wiederaufzunehmen. In der Studie quantifizieren wir die potenziellen wirtschaftlichen Konsequenzen durch ein allgemeines Gleichgewichtsmodell. Auf Grundlage der Annahme, dass ein Freihandelsabkommen alle Zölle zwischen der EU und Indien beseitigen und nichttarifäre Barrieren reduzieren würden, wie dies bereits durch andere tiefgreifende Abkommen geschehen ist, simulieren wir Handels-, Wertschöpfungs- und Wohlfahrtseffekte eines BTIA. Das reale Pro-Kopf-Einkommen würde sich in Indien um 1,30% und in der EU um 0,14% ändern. Wir finden, dass Außenseiter eines Handelsabkommens im Verhältnis zum Status quo weitgehend unberührt bleiben. Allerdings existiert eine beträchtliche regionale Heterogenität über die 134 geografischen, untersuchten Einheiten. Aufgrund einer Vereinbarung könnte sich der EU-Indien Handel im Bereich der Geschäftsdienstleistungen annähernd verdoppeln. Wir finden eine geringe Anzahl von Handelsumlenkungseffekten durch eng integrierte Wertschöpfungsketten, aber eine deutliche Auswirkung auf den Strukturwandel in Indien. Auf den ersten Blick sollten also beide Parteien ein Interesse daran haben, ein Freihandelsabkommen abzuschließen.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Felbermayr & Devashish Mitra & Rahel Aichele & Jasmin Katrin Gröschl, 2017. "Europa und Indien: Neustart in einer in Schieflage geratenen Handelsbeziehung," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 80, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifofob:80
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    File URL: https://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/ifo_Forschungsberichte_80_2017_Felbermayr_etal_Europe_India.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jung, Benjamin, 2012. "Gradualism and dynamic trade adjustment: Revisiting the pro-trade effect of free trade agreements," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 63-66.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Außenhandel; Außenwirtschaftspolitik; Handelshemmnisse; Auslandsinvestition; Indien; EU-Staaten;

    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business

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