IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/decono/v165y2017i3d10.1007_s10645-017-9293-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Potential Economic Effects of TTIP for the Netherlands

Author

Listed:
  • Hugo Rojas-Romagosa

    (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)

Abstract

The transatlantic trade and investment partnership (TTIP) is a comprehensive preferential trade agreement that is expected to significantly increase EU–US bilateral trade and investments. Negotiations are ongoing, so we use a scenario analysis to estimate the potential effects of TTIP under likely negotiated outcomes. In our main scenario, we assume a final trade deal where current tariffs are eliminated and non-tariff barriers are significantly reduced. We simulate the potential economic effects of TTIP using a CGE model. We find that US-Dutch bilateral trade doubles and this is translated into a positive but moderate effect on Dutch income of 1.7%.

Suggested Citation

  • Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, 2017. "Potential Economic Effects of TTIP for the Netherlands," De Economist, Springer, vol. 165(3), pages 271-294, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:decono:v:165:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10645-017-9293-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10645-017-9293-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10645-017-9293-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10645-017-9293-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gabriel Felbermayr & Benedikt Heid & Mario Larch & Erdal Yalcin, 2015. "Macroeconomic potentials of transatlantic free trade: a high resolution perspective for Europe and the world," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 30(83), pages 491-537.
    2. Marc J. Melitz & Daniel Trefler, 2012. "Gains from Trade When Firms Matter," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 91-118, Spring.
    3. Andrew B. Bernard & Jonathan Eaton & J. Bradford Jensen & Samuel Kortum, 2003. "Plants and Productivity in International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1268-1290, September.
    4. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2006. "Globalization and the Gains From Variety," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(2), pages 541-585.
    5. Feyrer, James, 2021. "Distance, trade, and income — The 1967 to 1975 closing of the Suez canal as a natural experiment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    6. Peter Egger & Joseph Francois & Miriam Manchin & Douglas Nelson, 2015. "Non-tariff barriers, integration and the transatlantic economy," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 30(83), pages 539-584.
    7. Coe, David T. & Helpman, Elhanan & Hoffmaister, Alexander W., 2009. "International R&D spillovers and institutions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 723-741, October.
    8. Coe, David T. & Helpman, Elhanan, 1995. "International R&D spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 859-887, May.
    9. Andreas Dür & Leonardo Baccini & Manfred Elsig, 2014. "The design of international trade agreements: Introducing a new dataset," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 353-375, September.
    10. Lionel Fontagné & Julien Gourdon & Sébastien Jean, 2013. "Transatlantic Trade: Whither Partnership, Which Economic Consequences?," CEPII Policy Brief 2013-01, CEPII research center.
    11. Joseph Francois & Miriam Manchin & Hanna Norberg & Olga Pindyuk & Patrick Tomberger, 2013. "Reducing Transatlantic Barriers to Trade and Investment: An Economic Assessment," IIDE Discussion Papers 20130401, Institue for International and Development Economics.
    12. James Feyrer, 2019. "Trade and Income—Exploiting Time Series in Geography," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 1-35, October.
    13. Keller, Wolfgang, 2002. "Trade and the Transmission of Technology," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 5-24, March.
    14. Costinot, Arnaud & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2014. "Trade Theory with Numbers: Quantifying the Consequences of Globalization," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 197-261, Elsevier.
    15. Egger, Peter & Larch, Mario, 2011. "An assessment of the Europe agreements' effects on bilateral trade, GDP, and welfare," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 263-279, February.
    16. Chase, Peter & Pelkmans, Jacques, 2015. "This time it�s different: Turbo-charging regulatory cooperation in TTIP," CEPS Papers 10659, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    17. Dür, Andreas & Baccini, Leonardo & Elsig, Manfred, 2014. "The design of international trade agreements: introducing a new dataset," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 59179, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Romain Wacziarg, 2001. "Measuring the Dynamic Gains from Trade," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 15(3), pages 393-39-429.
    19. Baldwin, Richard E, 1992. "Measurable Dynamic Gains from Trade," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(1), pages 162-174, February.
    20. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    21. Hertel, Thomas, 2013. "Global Applied General Equilibrium Analysis Using the Global Trade Analysis Project Framework," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 815-876, Elsevier.
    22. Francisco Rodríguez & Dani Rodrik, 2001. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 261-338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Roland de Bruijn, 2006. "Scale Economies and Imperfect Competition in WorldScan," CPB Memorandum 140, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    24. Rahel Aichele & Gabriel Felbermayr & Inga Heiland & Gabriel J. Felbermayr, 2014. "Going Deep: The Trade and Welfare Effects of TTIP," CESifo Working Paper Series 5150, CESifo.
    25. Poulsen, Lauge & Bonnitcha, Jonathan & Yackee, Jason, 2015. "Transatlantic Investment Treaty Protection," CEPS Papers 10295, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    26. Baetens, Freya, 2015. "Transatlantic Investment Treaty Protection � A Response to Poulsen, Bonnitcha and Yackee," CEPS Papers 10297, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    27. Lorenzo Caliendo & Fernando Parro, 2015. "Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(1), pages 1-44.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, 2017. "Potential Economic Effects of TTIP for the Netherlands," De Economist, Springer, vol. 165(3), pages 271-294, September.
    2. Aichele Rahel & Felbermayr Gabriel J. & Heiland Inga, 2016. "TTIP and Intra-European Trade: Boon or Bane?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 236(6), pages 639-664, December.
    3. Eddy Bekkers & Joseph F. Francois & Hugo Rojas†Romagosa, 2018. "Melting Ice Caps and the Economic Impact of Opening the Northern Sea Route," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(610), pages 1095-1127, May.
    4. Eddy Bekkers & Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, 2018. "Non-tariff Measure Estimations in Different Impact Assessments," RSCAS Working Papers 2018/40, European University Institute.
    5. Inga Heiland, 2017. "Five Essays on International Trade, Factor Flows and the Gains from Globalization," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 74.
    6. Oliver Krebs & Michael Pflüger, 2018. "How deep is your love? A quantitative spatial analysis of the transatlantic trade partnership," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 171-222, February.
    7. Bekkers, Eddy, 2019. "The welfare effects of trade policy experiments in quantitative trade models: The role of solution methods and baseline calibration," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2019-02, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    8. Jafari, Yaghoob & Britz, Wolfgang, 2018. "Modelling heterogeneous firms and non-tariff measures in free trade agreements using Computable General Equilibrium," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 279-294.
    9. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    10. Costinot, Arnaud & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2014. "Trade Theory with Numbers: Quantifying the Consequences of Globalization," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 197-261, Elsevier.
    11. Pavcnik, Nina & Goldberg, Pinelopi, 2016. "The Effects of Trade Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 11104, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Engler, Philipp & Tervala, Juha, 2018. "Welfare effects of TTIP in a DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 230-238.
    13. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Krebs, Oliver & Pflüger, Michael P., 2015. "How Deep Is Your Love? A Quantitative Spatial Analysis of the Transatlantic Trade Partnership," IZA Discussion Papers 9021, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Gröschl, Jasmin & Heiland, Inga, 2022. "Complex Europe: Quantifying the cost of disintegration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    17. Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2016. "General Equilibrium Trade Policy Analysis with Structural Gravity," CESifo Working Paper Series 6020, CESifo.
    18. Gabriel Felbermayr & Rahel Aichele & Gabriel J. Felbermayr, 2014. "Transatlantic Free Trade: The View Point of Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 5151, CESifo.
    19. Ariel Burstein & Javier Cravino, 2015. "Measured Aggregate Gains from International Trade," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 181-218, April.
    20. Bekkers, Eddy & Rojas-Romagosa, Hugo, 2016. "Quantitative trade models and the economic assessment of TTIP," Conference papers 332769, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    21. Patrick Bisciari, 2019. "A survey of the long-term impact of Brexit on the UK and the EU27 economies," Working Paper Research 366, National Bank of Belgium.
    22. Bolatto, Stefano & Moramarco, Graziano, 2023. "Gains from trade and their quantification: Does sectoral disaggregation matter?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 44-68.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    TTIP; Preferential trade agreements; CGE models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:decono:v:165:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10645-017-9293-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.