IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wsi/serxxx/v65y2020i02ns0217590817500096.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Long Range Dependence And Structural Breaks In The Gold Markets

Author

Listed:
  • TERENCE TAI LEUNG CHONG

    (Department of Economics and Lau Chor Tak Institute of Global Economics and Finance, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, The People’s Republic of China2Department of International Economics and Trade, Nanjing University, P. R. China)

  • CHENXI LU

    (Department of Economics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, NT, Hong Kong, SAR, The People’s Republic of China)

  • WING HONG CHAN

    (Lazaridis School of Business and Economics, Wilfrid Laurier University, Canada)

Abstract

The price of gold and its determining factors have been studied extensively in the literature. However, there is a lack of research on structural break in the long memory of the gold markets. This paper examines the long memory properties of gold prices. In particular, it attempts to test the stability of the long range dependence of gold returns and volatility. The results suggest that long memory exists in gold returns and volatility, and that the volatility of daily gold futures returns can be characterized by a hyperbolic decaying long memory process. Three episodes of structural breaks are found.

Suggested Citation

  • Terence Tai Leung Chong & Chenxi Lu & Wing Hong Chan, 2020. "Long Range Dependence And Structural Breaks In The Gold Markets," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 65(02), pages 257-273, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:65:y:2020:i:02:n:s0217590817500096
    DOI: 10.1142/S0217590817500096
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0217590817500096
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1142/S0217590817500096?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chong, Terence T.L. & Lu, Chenxi & Chan, Wing Hong, 2012. "Long-range dependence in the international diamond market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 401-403.
    2. Dittmann, Ingolf & Granger, Clive W. J., 2002. "Properties of nonlinear transformations of fractionally integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 113-133, October.
    3. Martin Martens & Jason Zein, 2004. "Predicting financial volatility: High‐frequency time‐series forecasts vis‐à‐vis implied volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(11), pages 1005-1028, November.
    4. Bailey, Warren Bernard, 1988. "Money Supply Announcements and the Ex Ante Volatility of Asset Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(4), pages 611-620, November.
    5. Wing Hong Chan & Liling Feng, 2012. "Time‐varying jump risk premia in stock index futures returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(7), pages 639-659, July.
    6. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
    7. Sarno,Lucio & Taylor,Mark P., 2003. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521485845, October.
    8. Granger, Clive W. J. & Terasvirta, Timo, 1999. "A simple nonlinear time series model with misleading linear properties," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 161-165, February.
    9. Cajueiro, Daniel O & Tabak, Benjamin M, 2004. "The Hurst exponent over time: testing the assertion that emerging markets are becoming more efficient," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 336(3), pages 521-537.
    10. Banerjee, Anindya & Urga, Giovanni, 2005. "Modelling structural breaks, long memory and stock market volatility: an overview," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 1-34.
    11. Lo, Andrew W, 1991. "Long-Term Memory in Stock Market Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1279-1313, September.
    12. Crato, Nuno & de Lima, Pedro J. F., 1994. "Long-range dependence in the conditional variance of stock returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 281-285.
    13. Nuno Crato & Bonnie K. Ray, 2000. "Memory in returns and volatilities of futures' contracts," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(6), pages 525-543, July.
    14. Thomas Mikosch & Cătălin Stărică, 2004. "Nonstationarities in Financial Time Series, the Long-Range Dependence, and the IGARCH Effects," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 378-390, February.
    15. Bernard Goodman, 1956. "The Price Of Gold And International Liquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 11(1), pages 15-28, March.
    16. Kitchen, John, 1996. "Domestic and international financial market responses to Federal deficit announcements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 239-254, April.
    17. Chong, Terence Tai-Leung, 2000. "Estimating the differencing parameter via the partial autocorrelation function," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 365-381, August.
    18. Wing H. Chan & Denise Young, 2006. "Jumping hedges: An examination of movements in copper spot and futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 169-188, February.
    19. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    20. Sadique, Shibley & Silvapulle, Param, 2001. "Long-Term Memory in Stock Market Returns: International Evidence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(1), pages 59-67, January.
    21. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
    22. Gourieroux, Christian & Jasiak, Joann, 2001. "Memory and infrequent breaks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 29-41, January.
    23. Breidt, F. Jay & Crato, Nuno & de Lima, Pedro, 1998. "The detection and estimation of long memory in stochastic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 325-348.
    24. Thomas Mikosch & Catalin Starica, 2004. "Non-stationarities in financial time series, the long range dependence and the IGARCH effects," Econometrics 0412005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Jun Cai & Yan‐Leung Cheung & Michael C. S. Wong, 2001. "What moves the gold market?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 257-278, March.
    26. Hinich Melvin J. & Chong Terence T.L., 2007. "A Class Test for Fractional Integration," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(2), pages 1-24, May.
    27. Richard T. Baillie & Young Wook Han & Tae-Go Kwon, 2002. "Further Long Memory Properties of Inflationary Shocks," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 68(3), pages 496-510, January.
    28. Christie-David, Rohan & Chaudhry, Mukesh & Koch, Timothy W., 2000. "Do macroeconomics news releases affect gold and silver prices?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 405-421.
    29. Benoit B. Mandelbrot, 1972. "Statistical Methodology for Nonperiodic Cycles: From the Covariance To R/S Analysis," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 1, number 3, pages 259-290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Do Gold Market Returns Have Long Memory?," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 28(2), pages 181-202, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Terence Tai Leung Chong & Chenxi Lu & Wing Hong Chan, 2017. "Long Range Dependence And Structural Breaks In The Gold Markets," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 65(02), pages 257-273, June.
    2. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-503 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen, 2013. "The Tunisian stock market index volatility: Long memory vs. switching regime," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 170-182.
    4. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Shittu, Olanrewaju I. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S., 2014. "On the persistence and volatility in European, American and Asian stocks bull and bear markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 149-162.
    5. Chong, Terence T.L. & Lu, Chenxi & Chan, Wing Hong, 2012. "Long-range dependence in the international diamond market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 401-403.
    6. Charfeddine, Lanouar, 2014. "True or spurious long memory in volatility: Further evidence on the energy futures markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 76-93.
    7. Segnon, Mawuli & Lux, Thomas, 2013. "Multifractal models in finance: Their origin, properties, and applications," Kiel Working Papers 1860, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Dominique Guegan, 2005. "How can we Define the Concept of Long Memory? An Econometric Survey," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 113-149.
    9. Banerjee, Anindya & Urga, Giovanni, 2005. "Modelling structural breaks, long memory and stock market volatility: an overview," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 1-34.
    10. Chaker Aloui & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2014. "On the detection of extreme movements and persistent behaviour in Mediterranean stock markets: a wavelet-based approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(22), pages 2611-2622, August.
    11. Kunal Saha & Vinodh Madhavan & Chandrashekhar G. R. & David McMillan, 2020. "Pitfalls in long memory research," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 1733280-173, January.
    12. Thomas Mikosch, 2004. "Is it really long memory we see in financial returns?," Econometrics 0412002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. McAleer, Michael & Medeiros, Marcelo C., 2008. "A multiple regime smooth transition Heterogeneous Autoregressive model for long memory and asymmetries," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 104-119, November.
    14. Assaf, Ata, 2016. "MENA stock market volatility persistence: Evidence before and after the financial crisis of 2008," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 222-240.
    15. Aloui, Chaker & Hamida, Hela ben, 2014. "Modelling and forecasting value at risk and expected shortfall for GCC stock markets: Do long memory, structural breaks, asymmetry, and fat-tails matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 349-380.
    16. Charfeddine, Lanouar, 2016. "Breaks or long range dependence in the energy futures volatility: Out-of-sample forecasting and VaR analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 354-374.
    17. Scharth, Marcel & Medeiros, Marcelo C., 2009. "Asymmetric effects and long memory in the volatility of Dow Jones stocks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 304-327.
    18. Bhattacharya, Sharad Nath & Bhattacharya, Mousumi, 2013. "Long memory in return structures from developed markets," Cuadernos de Gestión, Universidad del País Vasco - Instituto de Economía Aplicada a la Empresa (IEAE).
    19. Maheu John, 2005. "Can GARCH Models Capture Long-Range Dependence?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(4), pages 1-43, December.
    20. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
    21. Yalama, Abdullah & Celik, Sibel, 2013. "Real or spurious long memory characteristics of volatility: Empirical evidence from an emerging market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 67-72.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long memory; modified R/S statistic; FIGARCH; spot gold; gold futures;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:65:y:2020:i:02:n:s0217590817500096. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tai Tone Lim (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.worldscinet.com/ser/ser.shtml .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.