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Risk Analysis for Biological Hazards: What We Need to Know about Invasive Species

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  • Thomas J. Stohlgren
  • John L. Schnase

Abstract

Risk analysis for biological invasions is similar to other types of natural and human hazards. For example, risk analysis for chemical spills requires the evaluation of basic information on where a spill occurs; exposure level and toxicity of the chemical agent; knowledge of the physical processes involved in its rate and direction of spread; and potential impacts to the environment, economy, and human health relative to containment costs. Unlike typical chemical spills, biological invasions can have long lag times from introduction and establishment to successful invasion, they reproduce, and they can spread rapidly by physical and biological processes. We use a risk analysis framework to suggest a general strategy for risk analysis for invasive species and invaded habitats. It requires: (1) problem formation (scoping the problem, defining assessment endpoints); (2) analysis (information on species traits, matching species traits to suitable habitats, estimating exposure, surveys of current distribution and abundance); (3) risk characterization (understanding of data completeness, estimates of the “potential” distribution and abundance; estimates of the potential rate of spread; and probable risks, impacts, and costs); and (4) risk management (containment potential, costs, and opportunity costs; legal mandates and social considerations and information science and technology needs).

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas J. Stohlgren & John L. Schnase, 2006. "Risk Analysis for Biological Hazards: What We Need to Know about Invasive Species," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(1), pages 163-173, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:26:y:2006:i:1:p:163-173
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2006.00707.x
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    1. Pimentel, David & Zuniga, Rodolfo & Morrison, Doug, 2005. "Update on the environmental and economic costs associated with alien-invasive species in the United States," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 273-288, February.
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    1. Denys Yemshanov & Frank H. Koch & Yakov Ben‐Haim & Marla Downing & Frank Sapio & Marty Siltanen, 2013. "A New Multicriteria Risk Mapping Approach Based on a Multiattribute Frontier Concept," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(9), pages 1694-1709, September.
    2. Cory J. Lindgren, 2012. "Biosecurity Policy and the Use of Geospatial Predictive Tools to Address Invasive Plants: Updating the Risk Analysis Toolbox," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(1), pages 9-15, January.
    3. Onur Selcuk & Hatice Karakas & Beykan Cizel & Emre Ipekci Cetin, 2023. "How does tourism affect protected areas?: A multi-criteria decision making application in UNESCO natural heritage sites," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(2), pages 1923-1944, June.
    4. Thomas J. Stohlgren & Peter Ma & Sunil Kumar & Monique Rocca & Jeffrey T. Morisette & Catherine S. Jarnevich & Nate Benson, 2010. "Ensemble Habitat Mapping of Invasive Plant Species," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(2), pages 224-235, February.
    5. Nicholas E Young & Catherine S Jarnevich & Helen R Sofaer & Ian Pearse & Julia Sullivan & Peder Engelstad & Thomas J Stohlgren, 2020. "A modeling workflow that balances automation and human intervention to inform invasive plant management decisions at multiple spatial scales," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(3), pages 1-21, March.
    6. McDermott, Shana M. & Finnoff, David C. & Shogren, Jason F. & Kennedy, Chris J., 2021. "When does natural science uncertainty translate into economic uncertainty?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    7. Amanda M. West & Catherine S. Jarnevich & Nicholas E. Young & Pam L. Fuller, 2019. "Evaluating Potential Distribution of High‐Risk Aquatic Invasive Species in the Water Garden and Aquarium Trade at a Global Scale Based on Current Established Populations," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(5), pages 1169-1191, May.
    8. Denys Yemshanov & Frank H. Koch & Yakov Ben‐Haim & William D. Smith, 2010. "Robustness of Risk Maps and Survey Networks to Knowledge Gaps About a New Invasive Pest," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(2), pages 261-276, February.
    9. Wanwan Liang & Liem Tran & Jerome Grant & Vivek Srivastava, 2020. "Estimating Invasion Dynamics with Geopolitical Unit-Level Records: The Optimal Method Depends on Irregularity and Stochasticity of Spread," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-17, October.
    10. Elena Tricarico & Lorenzo Vilizzi & Francesca Gherardi & Gordon H. Copp, 2010. "Calibration of FI‐ISK, an Invasiveness Screening Tool for Nonnative Freshwater Invertebrates," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(2), pages 285-292, February.
    11. Gilberto Montibeller & L. Alberto Franco & Ashley Carreras, 2020. "A Risk Analysis Framework for Prioritizing and Managing Biosecurity Threats," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(11), pages 2462-2477, November.
    12. Jim Graham & Greg Newman & Sunil Kumar & Catherine Jarnevich & Nick Young & Alycia Crall & Thomas J. Stohlgren & Paul Evangelista, 2010. "Bringing Modeling to the Masses: A Web Based System to Predict Potential Species Distributions," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 2(4), pages 1-11, November.
    13. Gordon H. Copp & Lorenzo Vilizzi & John Mumford & Gemma V. Fenwick & Michael J. Godard & Rodolphe E. Gozlan, 2009. "Calibration of FISK, an Invasiveness Screening Tool for Nonnative Freshwater Fishes," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(3), pages 457-467, March.
    14. Terry Walshe & Mark Burgman, 2010. "A Framework for Assessing and Managing Risks Posed by Emerging Diseases," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(2), pages 236-249, February.

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