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A Framework for Assessing and Managing Risks Posed by Emerging Diseases

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  • Terry Walshe
  • Mark Burgman

Abstract

Frameworks for analyzing the risks of emerging diseases and invasive species often have relied on unstructured estimates of likelihoods and consequences. We suggest a flexible alternative that offers more transparent analysis without need for additional data. Its strength lies in explicit and complementary treatment of technical and social judgments. We describe a system in which cognitive maps, Bayes nets, and multicriteria analysis can be used in tandem to structure a problem, identify exposure pathways, combine data and expert judgement to estimate the likelihoods, and assess consequences of alternative decisions. These tools may be employed in participatory settings or as part of standard regulatory practice. We illustrate this approach with an assessment of the management of an emerging disease that poses a hazard to Australia.

Suggested Citation

  • Terry Walshe & Mark Burgman, 2010. "A Framework for Assessing and Managing Risks Posed by Emerging Diseases," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(2), pages 236-249, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:30:y:2010:i:2:p:236-249
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01305.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Kimberley Kolb Ayre & Colleen A. Caldwell & Jonah Stinson & Wayne G. Landis, 2014. "Analysis of Regional Scale Risk of Whirling Disease in Populations of Colorado and Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout Using a Bayesian Belief Network Model," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(9), pages 1589-1605, September.
    2. Alan J. Card & James R. Ward & P. John Clarkson, 2014. "Trust‐Level Risk Evaluation and Risk Control Guidance in the NHS East of England," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(8), pages 1469-1481, August.
    3. Gilberto Montibeller & L. Alberto Franco & Ashley Carreras, 2020. "A Risk Analysis Framework for Prioritizing and Managing Biosecurity Threats," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(11), pages 2462-2477, November.
    4. Mark Burgman & James Franklin & Keith R. Hayes & Geoffrey R. Hosack & Gareth W. Peters & Scott A. Sisson, 2012. "Modeling Extreme Risks in Ecology," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(11), pages 1956-1966, November.

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