IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/hlthec/v24y2015i5p566-582.html

Non‐Linear Effects of Soda Taxes on Consumption and Weight Outcomes

Author

Listed:
  • Jason M. Fletcher
  • David E. Frisvold
  • Nathan Tefft

Abstract

The potential health impacts of imposing large taxes on soda to improve population health have been of interest for over a decade. As estimates of the effects of existing soda taxes with low rates suggest little health improvements, recent proposals suggest that large taxes may be effective in reducing weight because of non‐linear consumption responses or threshold effects. This paper tests this hypothesis in two ways. First, we estimate non‐linear effects of taxes using the range of current rates. Second, we leverage the sudden, relatively large soda tax increase in two states during the early 1990s combined with new synthetic control methods useful for comparative case studies. Our findings suggest virtually no evidence of non‐linear or threshold effects. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Jason M. Fletcher & David E. Frisvold & Nathan Tefft, 2015. "Non‐Linear Effects of Soda Taxes on Consumption and Weight Outcomes," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(5), pages 566-582, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:24:y:2015:i:5:p:566-582
    DOI: 10.1002/hec.3045
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.3045
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/hec.3045?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-430, March.
    2. David M. Cutler & Edward L. Glaeser & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2003. "Why Have Americans Become More Obese?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 93-118, Summer.
    3. Kevin Callison & Robert Kaestner, 2014. "Do Higher Tobacco Taxes Reduce Adult Smoking? New Evidence Of The Effect Of Recent Cigarette Tax Increases On Adult Smoking," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(1), pages 155-172, January.
    4. Jason M. Fletcher & David Frisvold & Nathan Tefft, 2010. "Can Soft Drink Taxes Reduce Population Weight?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 28(1), pages 23-35, January.
    5. Todd, Jessica E. & Zhen, Chen, 2010. "Can Taxes on Calorically Sweetened Beverages Reduce Obesity?," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 25(3), pages 1-7.
    6. Raj Chetty & Adam Looney & Kory Kroft, 2009. "Salience and Taxation: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1145-1177, September.
    7. Lakdawalla, Darius & Philipson, Tomas, 2009. "The growth of obesity and technological change," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 283-293, December.
    8. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    9. Lin, Biing-Hwan & Smith, Travis A. & Lee, Jonq-Ying & Hall, Kevin D., 2011. "Measuring weight outcomes for obesity intervention strategies: The case of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 329-341.
    10. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
    11. Harding, Matthew & Lovenheim, Michael, 2017. "The effect of prices on nutrition: Comparing the impact of product- and nutrient-specific taxes," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 53-71.
    12. Fletcher, Jason M. & Frisvold, David E. & Tefft, Nathan, 2010. "The effects of soft drink taxes on child and adolescent consumption and weight outcomes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(11-12), pages 967-974, December.
    13. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    14. Senarath Dharmasena & Oral Capps, 2012. "Intended and unintended consequences of a proposed national tax on sugar‐sweetened beverages to combat the U.S. obesity problem," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(6), pages 669-694, June.
    15. Gruber, Jonathan & Frakes, Michael, 2006. "Does falling smoking lead to rising obesity?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 183-197, March.
    16. Yuqing Zheng & Edward W. McLaughlin & Harry M. Kaiser, 2013. "Taxing Food and Beverages: Theory, Evidence, and Policy," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(3), pages 705-723.
    17. Jacobson, M.F. & Brownell, K.D., 2000. "Small taxes on soft drinks and snack foods to promote health," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 90(6), pages 854-857.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dharmasena, Senarath & Davis, George & Capps, Oral, Jr., 2014. "Partial versus General Equilibrium Calorie and Revenue Effects Associated with a Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 39(2), pages 1-17.
    2. Gračner, Tadeja, 2021. "Bittersweet: How prices of sugar-rich foods contribute to the diet-related disease epidemic in Mexico," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    3. Harding, Matthew & Lovenheim, Michael, 2017. "The effect of prices on nutrition: Comparing the impact of product- and nutrient-specific taxes," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 53-71.
    4. Riera-Crichton, Daniel & Tefft, Nathan, 2014. "Macronutrients and obesity: Revisiting the calories in, calories out framework," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 33-49.
    5. Alberto Gago & Xavier Labandeira & Xiral López Otero, 2014. "A Panorama on Energy Taxes and Green Tax Reforms," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 208(1), pages 145-190, March.
    6. Xiang, Di & Zhan, Lue & Bordignon, Massimo, 2020. "A reconsideration of the sugar sweetened beverage tax in a household production model," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    7. Massimo Bordignon & Di Xiang & Lue Zhan, 2018. "Predicting the Effects of a Sugar Sweetened Beverage Tax in a Household Production Model," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def075, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    8. Alberto Pench, 2020. "Time Allocation and Snacks and Sugar Sweetened Beverages Taxation," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 6(3), pages 469-492, November.
    9. Aguilar, Arturo & Gutierrez, Emilio & Seira, Enrique, 2021. "The effectiveness of sin food taxes: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    10. Bauhoff, Sebastian, 2014. "The effect of school district nutrition policies on dietary intake and overweight: A synthetic control approach," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 45-55.
    11. Ruhm, Christopher J., 2012. "Understanding overeating and obesity," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 781-796.
    12. Ou Yang & Peter Sivey & Andrea M. de Silva & Anthony Scott, 2020. "Parents' Demand for Sugar Sweetened Beverages for Their Pre‐School Children: Evidence from a Stated‐Preference Experiment," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(2), pages 480-504, March.
    13. Papoutsi, Georgia & Nayga, Rodolfo & Lazaridis, Panagiotis & Drichoutis, Andreas, 2013. "Nudging parental health behavior with and without children's pestering power: Fat tax, subsidy or both?," MPRA Paper 52324, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Jan Marcus & Thomas Siedler & Nicolas R. Ziebarth, 2022. "The Long-Run Effects of Sports Club Vouchers for Primary School Children," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 128-165, August.
    15. Fletcher, Jason M. & Frisvold, David E. & Tefft, Nathan, 2010. "The effects of soft drink taxes on child and adolescent consumption and weight outcomes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(11-12), pages 967-974, December.
    16. Alberto Pench, 0. "Time Allocation and Snacks and Sugar Sweetened Beverages Taxation," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 0, pages 1-24.
    17. Javier Rivas & Miguel Flores, 2011. "Cash Incentives and Unhealthy Food Consumption," Discussion Papers in Economics 11/47, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester, revised Jan 2012.
    18. Joan Gil & Guillem López Casasnovas & Toni Mora, 2013. "Taxation of unhealthy consumption of food and drinks: An updated literature review," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 207(4), pages 119-140, December.
    19. Pourya Valizadeh & Shu Wen Ng, 2021. "Would A National Sugar‐Sweetened Beverage Tax in the United States Be Well Targeted?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(3), pages 961-986, May.
    20. Fabrice Etilé, 2019. "The Economics of Diet and Obesity: Public Policy," Post-Print hal-02154445, HAL.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:24:y:2015:i:5:p:566-582. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/5749 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.