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Steuerreform 2015/16 und kalte Progression 2010/2019. Eine Mikrosimulationsanalyse für Österreich

Author

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  • Viktor Steiner

    (WIFO)

  • Florian Wakolbinger

Abstract

Wie die Mikrosimulation mit dem Austrian Tax Transfer Microsimulation Model (ATTM) zeigt, wird die für 2016 geplante Steuerreform mit einem jährlichen Entlastungsvolumen von knapp 5 Mrd. € die seit der Steuerreform 2009/10 kumulierte zusätzliche Steuerbelastung durch die kalte Progression nur zum Teil ausgleichen. Wird der Lohn- und Einkommensteuertarif nicht laufend an die für die nächsten Jahre zu erwartende Inflation angepasst, dann dürfte die Entlastung durch die Steuerreform bereits in wenigen Jahren wieder eliminiert sein. Darüber hinaus ist die kalte Progression mit möglicherweise nicht intendierten Verteilungswirkungen verbunden, da sie die Steuerbelastung niedriger und mittlerer Einkommen gegenüber jener der höheren Einkommen verstärkt.

Suggested Citation

  • Viktor Steiner & Florian Wakolbinger, 2015. "Steuerreform 2015/16 und kalte Progression 2010/2019. Eine Mikrosimulationsanalyse für Österreich," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 88(5), pages 425-430, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2015:i:5:p:425-430
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stefan Bach, 2012. "Abbau der kalten Progression: nicht die einzige Herausforderung beim Einkommensteuertarif," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 79(12), pages 17-21.
    2. Stefan Bach & Giacomo Corneo & Viktor Steiner, 2013. "Effective Taxation of Top Incomes in Germany," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 14(2), pages 115-137, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Peter Brandner, 2015. "Anmerkungen zur kalten Progression und ihrer Berechnung," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 88(5), pages 463-471, May.
    2. Margit Schratzenstaller, 2015. "The Tax Reform 2015-16 – Measures and Overall Assessment," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 20(20), pages 222-237, December.
    3. Simon Loretz, 2015. "Anteil der kalten Progression an der gesamten Lohnsteuerprogression in Österreich," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 88(5), pages 431-437, May.

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