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A Changing China: Implications for Developing Countries

Author

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  • Schellekens, Philip

    () (World Bank)

Abstract

Three decades of rapid growth and structural change have transformed China into an upper-middle-income country and global economic powerhouse. China’s transformations over this period wielded increasing influence over the development path of other countries, either directly through bilateral trade and financial flows or indirectly through growth spillovers and terms of trade effects. Looking ahead, as China embarks on a new phase in its development journey—a phase characterized by slower but higher-quality growth—the economic landscape facing the developing world is expected to be redefined yet again. As China changes, so will its interactions with the outside world. China is expected to remain both a market and a competitor, but its changes are likely to lead to new opportunities for many and new challenges for some. Key questions in this respect are: (i) how will the level and composition of China’s import demand evolve as its economy slows and rebalances; (ii) to what extent will the presumed out-migration of labor-intensive manufacturing materialize and create new opportunities elsewhere; and (iii) how quickly will China move up the value chain and redefine its competitive advantage in the global marketplace? How these uncertain long-term developments affect individual countries will depend on differences in total supply chain costs, resource availability, and innovation capability. As in the past, China’s transformations are expected to put formidable pressure on countries to adapt and reform, requiring both political will and entrepreneurial capacity, in a collective race where success will be measured against a rapidly moving frontier

Suggested Citation

  • Schellekens, Philip, 2013. "A Changing China: Implications for Developing Countries," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 118, pages 1-9, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:prmecp:ep118
    as

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    File URL: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTPREMNET/Resources/EP118.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barry Eichengreen & Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2012. "When Fast-Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 11(1), pages 42-87, Winter/Sp.
    2. Tiago V. De V. Cavalcanti & Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2015. "Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(6), pages 857-873, September.
    3. World Bank, 2011. "Moving Up the Value Chain : A Study of Malaysia's Solar and Medical Device Industries," World Bank Other Operational Studies 12572, The World Bank.
    4. Brahmbhatt, Milan & Canuto, Otaviano, 2010. "Natural Resources and Development Strategy after the Crisis," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 1, pages 1-7, February.
    5. Richard Baldwin, 2011. "Trade And Industrialisation After Globalisation's 2nd Unbundling: How Building And Joining A Supply Chain Are Different And Why It Matters," NBER Working Papers 17716, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Barry Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2008. "Accounting for Growth: Comparing China and India," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 45-66, Winter.
    7. Barry Eichengreen & Yeongseop Rhee & Hui Tong, 2004. "The Impact of China on the Exports of Other Asian Countries," NBER Working Papers 10768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Shahid Yusuf & Kaoru Nabeshima, 2009. "Tiger Economies Under Threat : A Comparative Analysis of Malaysia's Industrial Prospects and Policy Options," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2680.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Karim El Aynaoui, 2015. "MAROC : Stratégie de croissance à l’horizon 2025 dans un environnement international en mutation," Books & Reports, OCP Policy Center, number 1, December.
    2. Laëtitia Guilhot, 2015. "Le nouveau modèle de croissance de l’économie chinoise, un moyen pour relever le défi de la trappe à revenu intermédiaire ?," Post-Print halshs-01165405, HAL.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • J0 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General

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