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Rebel Tactics

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  • Ethan Bueno de Mesquita

Abstract

I study a model of mobilization and rebel tactical choice. Rebel leaders choose between conventional tactics that are heavily reliant on mobilization, irregular tactics that are less so, and withdrawal from conflict. The model yields the following results, among others. Increased nonviolent opportunity has a nonmonotone effect on the use of irregular tactics. Conflict has option value, so irregular campaigns last longer than the rebels' short-term interest dictates, especially in volatile military environments. By demonstrating lack of rebel capacity and diminishing mobilization, successful counterinsurgencies may increase irregular violence. Conflict begets conflict by eroding outside options, thereby increasing mobilization.

Suggested Citation

  • Ethan Bueno de Mesquita, 2013. "Rebel Tactics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(2), pages 323-357.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/670137
    DOI: 10.1086/670137
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    3. Andra Filote & Niklas Potrafke & Heinrich Ursprung, 2016. "Suicide attacks and religious cleavages," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 3-28, January.
    4. Miaari, Sami & Zussman, Asaf & Zussman, Noam, 2014. "Employment restrictions and political violence in the Israeli–Palestinian conflict," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 24-44.
    5. Thomas Gries & Claus-Jochen Haake, 2016. "An Economic Theory of 'Destabilization War'," Working Papers CIE 95, Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics.
    6. Gries, Thomas & Haake, Claus-Jochen, 2016. "An Economic Theory of 'Destabilization War' '- Compromise for Peace versus Conventional, Guerilla, or Terrorist Warfare," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145617, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Martínez, Luis R., 2017. "Transnational insurgents: Evidence from Colombia's FARC at the border with Chávez's Venezuela," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 138-153.
    8. Shadmehr, Mehdi, 2015. "Extremism in revolutionary movements," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 97-121.

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