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Understanding the Dynamics of Violent Political Revolutions in an Agent-Based Framework

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  • Alessandro Moro

Abstract

This paper develops an agent-based computational model of violent political revolutions in which a subjugated population of citizens and an armed revolutionary organisation attempt to overthrow a central authority and its loyal forces. The model replicates several patterns of rebellion consistent with major historical revolutions, and provides an explanation for the multiplicity of outcomes that can arise from an uprising. The relevance of the heterogeneity of scenarios predicted by the model can be understood by considering the recent experience of the Arab Spring involving several rebellions that arose in an apparently similar way, but resulted in completely different political outcomes: the successful revolution in Tunisia, the failed protests in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, and civil war in Syria and Libya.

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  • Alessandro Moro, 2016. "Understanding the Dynamics of Violent Political Revolutions in an Agent-Based Framework," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(4), pages 1-17, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0154175
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0154175
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ekaterina V. Kruchinskaya, 2021. "Factors Of Mobilization To Protest, Their Impact And Variability: Hierarchical Bayesian Approach," HSE Working papers WP BRP 79/PS/2021, National Research University Higher School of Economics.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions

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