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Tax Evasion, Human Capital, and Productivity-Induced Tax Rate Reduction

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  • Max Gillman
  • Michal Kejak

Abstract

Growth in the human capital sector's productivity explains in part how US postwar growth and welfare could have increased while US tax rates declined. Modeling tax evasion within an endogenous growth model with human capital, an upward trend in goods and human capital sectors gradually decreases tax evasion and allows for tax rate reduction. Using estimated goods and human capital sectoral productivities, the model explains 30 percent of the actual decline in a weighted average of postwar US top marginal personal and corporate tax rates. The productivity increases are asymmetric in a fashion related to that of McGrattan and Prescott.

Suggested Citation

  • Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2014. "Tax Evasion, Human Capital, and Productivity-Induced Tax Rate Reduction," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages 42-79.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jhucap:doi:10.1086/675328
    DOI: 10.1086/675328
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jonathan Guryan, 2009. "The Race between Education and Technology: A Review Article," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(2), pages 177-196.
    2. Allingham, Michael G. & Sandmo, Agnar, 1972. "Income tax evasion: a theoretical analysis," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 323-338, November.
    3. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 763-801, June.
    4. Dhami, Sanjit & Al-Nowaihi, Ali, 2010. "Optimal taxation in the presence of tax evasion: Expected utility versus prospect theory," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 313-337, August.
    5. Sealey, Calvin W, Jr & Lindley, James T, 1977. "Inputs, Outputs, and a Theory of Production and Cost at Depository Financial Institutions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1251-1266, September.
    6. James Cloyne, 2013. "Discretionary Tax Changes and the Macroeconomy: New Narrative Evidence from the United Kingdom," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1507-1528, June.
    7. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2005. "Inflation and Balanced-Path Growth with Alternative Payment Mechanisms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(500), pages 247-270, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Max Gillman, 2020. "Income Tax Evasion: Tax Elasticity, Welfare, and Revenue," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 2038, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    2. Konstantinos Chatzimichael & Pantelis Kalaitzidakis & Vangelis Tzouvelekas, 2019. "Tax evasion, tax monitoring expenses and economic growth: an empirical analysis in OECD countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 285-300, July.
    3. Gilbert Mbara & Ryszard Kokoszczynski & Joanna Tyrowicz, 2017. "Striking a balance: optimal tax policy with labor market duality," GRAPE Working Papers 16, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.

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