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Tax Evasion, Human Capital, and Productivity-Induced Tax Rate Reduction

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  • Max Gillman
  • Michal Kejak

Abstract

Growth in the human capital sector's productivity explains in part how US postwar growth and welfare could have increased while US tax rates declined. Modeling tax evasion within an endogenous growth model with human capital, an upward trend in goods and human capital sectors gradually decreases tax evasion and allows for tax rate reduction. Using estimated goods and human capital sectoral productivities, the model explains 30 percent of the actual decline in a weighted average of postwar US top marginal personal and corporate tax rates. The productivity increases are asymmetric in a fashion related to that of McGrattan and Prescott.

Suggested Citation

  • Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2014. "Tax Evasion, Human Capital, and Productivity-Induced Tax Rate Reduction," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages 42-79.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jhucap:doi:10.1086/675328
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/675328
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 763-801, June.
    2. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2005. "Inflation and Balanced-Path Growth with Alternative Payment Mechanisms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(500), pages 247-270, January.
    3. James Cloyne, 2013. "Discretionary Tax Changes and the Macroeconomy: New Narrative Evidence from the United Kingdom," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1507-1528, June.
    4. Jonathan Guryan, 2009. "The Race between Education and Technology: A Review Article," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(2), pages 177-196.
    5. Allingham, Michael G. & Sandmo, Agnar, 1972. "Income tax evasion: a theoretical analysis," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 323-338, November.
    6. Dhami, Sanjit & Al-Nowaihi, Ali, 2010. "Optimal taxation in the presence of tax evasion: Expected utility versus prospect theory," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 313-337, August.
    7. Sealey, Calvin W, Jr & Lindley, James T, 1977. "Inputs, Outputs, and a Theory of Production and Cost at Depository Financial Institutions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1251-1266, September.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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