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Slow Growth, Trade Liberalisation and the Mexican Disease: A medium-term macroeconomic model with an application to Mexico

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  • Carlos Ibarra

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analyse Mexico's medium-term macroeconomic outlook, from the vantage point of the country's recent development. The analysis is carried out within a formal model for the determination of the rates of employment and inflation under conditions of external and internal balance. In equilibrium, the real wage and the rates of employment and inflation depend inter alia on the level of labour productivity, the ratio of foreign debt to domestic output, and the foreign trade regime. Econometric tests based on Mexican data support the model's basic postulates and, in addition, reveal the presence of structural change, linked to trade reform, in the trade balance and the manufactures' productivity growth equations. The macroeconomic implications of such parameter changes are discussed with the help of the analytical model developed.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Ibarra, 2003. "Slow Growth, Trade Liberalisation and the Mexican Disease: A medium-term macroeconomic model with an application to Mexico," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 269-292.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:17:y:2003:i:3:p:269-292
    DOI: 10.1080/0269217032000090487
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Castañeda Sabido, Alejandro & Garduño Ángeles, Gustavo, 2000. "Rendimientos crecientes a escala en la manufactura mexicana," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(266), pages 277-300, abril-jun.
    2. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2000. "Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: Liberalization, Overshooting, and Volatility," NBER Chapters,in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 61-98 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 429-438.
    4. Sebastian Edwards & Miguel A. Savastano, 1999. "Exchange Rates in Emerging Economies: What Do We Know? What Do We Need to Know?," NBER Working Papers 7228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Thomas M. Fullerton, Jr. & W. Charles Sowyer & Richard L. Sprinkle, 1997. "Functional form for United States-México trade equations," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 12(1), pages 23-35.
    6. Sebastian Edwards, 1999. "Crisis Prevention: Lessons from Mexico and East Asia," NBER Working Papers 7233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, 1999. "Mexico's Economic Growth and the Balance of Payments Constraint: A cointegration analysis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 149-159.
    8. Julio López G. & Alberto Cruz B., 2000. "“Thirlwall’s Law” and Beyond: The Latin American Experience," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 477-495, March.
    9. Skott, Peter & Larudee, Mehrene, 1998. "Uneven Development and the Liberalisation of Trade and Capital Flows: The Case of Mexico," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 277-295, May.
    10. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, 1999. "On Capital Flows and the Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth Model," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 21(2), pages 283-298, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ibarra, Carlos A., 2004. "Capital Flows, Exchange Rate Regime, and Macroeconomic Performance in Mexico," WIDER Working Paper Series 027, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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