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Will the skill-premium in the Netherlands rise in the next decades?

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  • A. Dupuy

Abstract

While the skill-premium has been rising sharply in the US and the UK for 20 years, the Dutch skill-premium decreased for much of that period and only started to rise in the early 90s. In this article, we investigate whether the Dutch skill-premium will rise in the next decades. To answer this question, we forecast the skill-premium using the Katz and Murphy (1992) and the Krusell et al. (2000) models. The Katz and Murphy model (KM) explains demand shifts by skill-biased technological change in unobservable variables captured by a time trend. In contrast, the Krusell et al. model (KORV) explains demand shifts by (observable) changes in the capital stock under a capital-skill complementarity technology. The results show that while the KM model predicts that the skill-premium will have increased by 30% in 2020, based on realistic predictions of the stock of capital, the KORV model predicts that the skill-premium will remain between -5 and +5% of its 1996 level.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Dupuy, 2007. "Will the skill-premium in the Netherlands rise in the next decades?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(21), pages 2723-2731.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:39:y:2007:i:21:p:2723-2731
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840600749441
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nickell, Stephen & Bell, Brian, 1996. "Changes in the Distribution of Wages and Unemployment in OECD Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 302-308, May.
    2. Bas Jacobs, 2004. "The Lost Race between Schooling and Technology," De Economist, Springer, vol. 152(1), pages 47-78, March.
    3. Paul Beaudry & David A. Green, 2003. "Wages and Employment in the United States and Germany: What Explains the Differences?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 573-602, June.
    4. Per Krusell & Lee E. Ohanian & JosÈ-Victor RÌos-Rull & Giovanni L. Violante, 2000. "Capital-Skill Complementarity and Inequality: A Macroeconomic Analysis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1029-1054, September.
    5. Eli Berman & John Bound & Zvi Griliches, 1994. "Changes in the Demand for Skilled Labor within U. S. Manufacturing: Evidence from the Annual Survey of Manufactures," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(2), pages 367-397.
    6. George E. Johnson, 1997. "Changes in Earnings Inequality: The Role of Demand Shifts," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 41-54, Spring.
    7. David H. Autor & Lawrence F. Katz & Alan B. Krueger, 1998. "Computing Inequality: Have Computers Changed the Labor Market?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(4), pages 1169-1213.
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    Cited by:

    1. Florentino Felgueroso & Manuel Hidalgo-Pérez & Sergi Jiménez-Martín, 2016. "The Puzzling Fall of the Wage Skill Premium in Spain," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 84(3), pages 390-435, June.
    2. Jan Kakes & Jasper de Winter, 2008. "Preferences for redistribution in the Netherlands," DNB Working Papers 179, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D33 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Factor Income Distribution
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy

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