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Does banking sector development affect economic growth and inflation? A panel cointegration and causality approach

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  • Rudra P. Pradhan
  • B. Mak Arvin
  • Neville R. Norman
  • Yasuyuki Nishigaki

Abstract

Many studies investigate relationships between economic growth in specific economies and the development of its banking sector or between its growth rate and its rate of inflation. Advancing on earlier work, this article uses panel cointegration and causality tests applied to 34 OECD countries over the period 1960--2011. Our novel panel-data estimation procedure offers more robust estimates by utilizing variations between countries as well as variation over time. We identify important long-run causal links among the variables and show their implications for economic policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Rudra P. Pradhan & B. Mak Arvin & Neville R. Norman & Yasuyuki Nishigaki, 2014. "Does banking sector development affect economic growth and inflation? A panel cointegration and causality approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(7), pages 465-480, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:24:y:2014:i:7:p:465-480
    DOI: 10.1080/09603107.2014.881968
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
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    1. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Arvin, Mak B. & Norman, Neville R., 2015. "Insurance development and the finance-growth nexus: Evidence from 34 OECD countries," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-22.
    2. de Oliveira de Moraes, Claudio & Van Meeuwen, Roberto, 2025. "The financial development-environmental nexus – Unveiling trade-offs," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    3. Khalil Mhadhbi & Chokri Terzi & Ali Bouchrika, 2020. "Banking sector development and economic growth in developing countries: a bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(6), pages 2817-2836, June.
    4. Chunlian Chen & Babar Nawaz Abbasi & Ali Sohail, 2022. "Scientific Research of Innovation Ability of Universities in the United States of America and China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-22, November.
    5. Uyar, Ali & Nimer, Khalil & Kuzey, Cemil & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Schneider, Friedrich, 2021. "Can e-government initiatives alleviate tax evasion? The moderation effect of ICT," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    6. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Olasehinde-Williams, Godwin, 2018. "The synergistic effect of insurance and banking sector activities on economic growth in Africa," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 637-648.
    7. Magda Kandil & Muhammad Shahbaz & Mantu Kumar Mahalik & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2017. "The drivers of economic growth in China and India: globalization or financial development?," International Journal of Development Issues, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 16(1), pages 54-84, April.
    8. Rudra P. Pradhan & Mahendhiran S. Nair & Mak B. Arvin & John H. Hall, 2023. "Institutional quality, financial development and sustainable economic growth among lower income countries," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(3), pages 435-483, August.
    9. Ali, Adnan & Ramakrishnan, Suresh & Faisal,, 2022. "Financial development and natural resources. Is there a stock market resource curse?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    10. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Arvin, Mak B. & Nair, Mahendhiran & Hall, John H. & Gupta, Atul, 2017. "Is there a link between economic growth and insurance and banking sector activities in the G-20 countries?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 12-28.
    11. Shabir Ahmad Hakim & Shaista. Alvi, 2025. "Bank lending and environmental quality in Gulf Cooperation Council countries," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, December.
    12. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Arvin, Mak B. & Bahmani, Sahar & Hall, John H. & Norman, Neville R., 2017. "Finance and growth: Evidence from the ARF countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 136-148.
    13. Tuna, Gulcay & Almahadin, Hamed Ahmad, 2021. "Does interest rate and its volatility affect banking sector development? Empirical evidence from emerging market economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    14. Doukouré Charles Fe & Jeffrey Kouton, 2023. "The Banking Sector, the Engine of Inclusive Growth in WAEMU Countries: Decoy or Glimmer?," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(1), pages 472-502, March.
    15. Rudra P. Pradhan & Mak B. Arvin & John H. Hall & Sahar Bahmani, 2014. "Causal nexus between economic growth, banking sector development, stock market development, and other macroeconomic variables: The case of ASEAN countries," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(4), pages 155-173, November.
    16. Rudra P. Pradhan & Yasuyuki Nishigaki & John H. Hall, 2017. "The multivariate dynamic causal relations between financial depth, inflation, and economic growth," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 54(1), pages 63-93, June.
    17. Rudra P. Pradhan & Mak B. Arvin & Neville R. Norman & Sara E. Bennett, 2016. "Financial depth, internet penetration rates and economic growth: country-panel evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(4), pages 331-343, January.
    18. Owusu-Agyei, Samuel & Okafor, Godwin & Chijoke-Mgbame, Aruoriwo Marian & Ohalehi, Paschal & Hasan, Fakhrul, 2020. "Internet adoption and financial development in sub-Saharan Africa," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    19. Rudra P. Pradhan & Mak B. Arvin & Sara E. Bennett & Mahendhiran Nair & John H. Hall, 2016. "Bond Market Development, Economic Growth and Other Macroeconomic Determinants: Panel VAR Evidence," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 23(2), pages 175-201, June.
    20. Rudra P. Pradhan, Mak B. Arvin, John H. Hall and Neville R. Norman, 2017. "Insurance Market Development and Macroeconomic Interactions in Twenty-Six Countries," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 42(4), pages 23-57, December.
    21. Chaaben, Nahla & Saida, Imen & Helali, Kamel, 2026. "Analyzing the non-linear impact of carbon dioxide emissions on renewable energy in Commonwealth nations," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    22. Stanislaw Flejterski & Marta Postula, 2020. "Wplyw struktury wlasnosci instytucji finansowych w krajach UE na rozwoj spoleczno-gospodarczy (The impact of the ownership structure of financial institutions in EU countries on the socio-economic development)," Research Reports, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(33), pages 5-17.
    23. Jayakumar, Manju & Pradhan, Rudra P. & Dash, Saurav & Maradana, Rana P. & Gaurav, Kunal, 2018. "Banking competition, banking stability, and economic growth: Are feedback effects at work?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 15-41.
    24. Nguyen, Xuan Minh Thuy & Wang, Ying & Acheampong, Albert, 2025. "The mediating effect of institutional governance on banking depth and economic performance," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).

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