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Human Capital and French Macroeconomic Growth in the Long Run

  • Claude Diebolt

    ()

    (BETA/CNRS, Université Louis Pasteur de Strasbourg, France)

  • Jamel Trabelsi

    ()

    (BETA/CNRS, Université Louis Pasteur de Strasbourg, France)

Much of the economic growth literature has focused on the contribution of human capital to national development. Two assumptions have remained largely unexamined: (I) economic stability results from economic growth, and (II) investments in human capital result in economic growth (ceteris paribus). This article questions this education-stability link by analyzing regime shifts in the stochastic process of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and education expenditures in France over the period 1820-1990. Results indicate that human capital investment prior to 1945 was a response to economic growth. It is only since 1945 that human capital investments appear to drive economic growth. The results raise the question of whether human capital investment might not be as much a consequence as it is a cause of economic stability in the course of time.

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Paper provided by Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC) in its series Working Papers with number 08-11.

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Length: 15 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:afc:wpaper:08-11
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.cliometrie.org

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  1. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
  2. Martin Sola & Zacharias Psaradakis, 2002. "On Detrending and Cyclical Asymmetry," Department of Economics Working Papers 020, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
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  4. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S71-102, October.
  5. Jean-Luc Demeulemeester & Claude Diebolt, 2005. "The Economics of Education: Unkept Promises?," Working Papers 05-08, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
  6. anonymous, 1995. "Does the bouncing ball lead to economic growth?," Regional Update, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Jul, pages 1-2, 4-6.
  7. Blaug, Mark, 1985. "Where are we now in the economics of education?," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 17-28, February.
  8. Nicolas DAURES & Claude DIEBOLT & Magali JAOUL-GRAMMARE & Gilles SAN MARTINO, 2007. "L’instruction primaire en France au 19ème siècle. Une étude cliométrique du mythe de Ferry," Economies et Sociétés (Serie 'Histoire Economique Quantitative'), Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), issue 37, pages 1089-1363, July-Augu.
  9. Hans-Martin Krolzig & Michael Clements, 2000. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterisation and Testing based on Markov-Switching Autoregressions," Economics Series Working Papers 2000-W32, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  10. Daniel E. Sichel, 1989. "Business cycle asymmetry: a deeper look," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 93, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Bai, Jushan & Ng, Serena, 2001. "A consistent test for conditional symmetry in time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1-2), pages 225-258, July.
  12. Jacob Mincer, 1958. "Investment in Human Capital and Personal Income Distribution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 281.
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