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Are business cycles all alike? Evidence from long-run international data

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  • Luca Matteo Stanca

Abstract

Most recent empirical analyses of aggregate economic fluctuations rely on the implicit assumption that business cycles are all alike. This paper investigates this assumption for the long-run international data set of Backus and Kehoe and presents the results of statistical tests of the 'representative cycle' hypothesis. Findings show that there is substantial heterogeneity across individual cycles and phases in terms of duration, amplitude, and co-movements between variables, and that such heterogeneity is generally statistically significant. These results underline, at an empirical level, the limitations of measuring business cycles in terms of sample second moments, and, at a theoretical level, the difficulties of developing theories providing a unified explanation of the business cycle.

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  • Luca Matteo Stanca, 1999. "Are business cycles all alike? Evidence from long-run international data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(12), pages 765-769.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:6:y:1999:i:12:p:765-769
    DOI: 10.1080/135048599352123
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    1. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lisa Sella & Gianna Vivaldo & Andreas Groth & Michael Ghil, 2016. "Economic Cycles and Their Synchronization: A Comparison of Cyclic Modes in Three European Countries," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 25-48, September.
    2. Gianfranco Giulioni, 2011. "The product innovation process and GDP dynamics," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 595-618, October.
    3. Shikuan Chen & Ming-Jen Chang, 2006. "Relative prices and expenditure switching effect," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(17), pages 2069-2073.

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