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Forecasting National and Regional Youth Unemployment in Spain Using Google Trends

Author

Listed:
  • Mihaela Simionescu

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting of the Romanian Academy)

  • Javier Cifuentes-Faura

    (University of Murcia)

Abstract

In Spain, the youth unemployment rate is one of the highest in the European Union. With the pandemic caused by Covid-19, young people face high unemployment rates and are more vulnerable to a decrease in labour demand. This paper analyses and predicts youth unemployment using Google Trends indices in Spain for the period between the first quarter of 2004 and the second quarter of 2021, being the first work to carry out this study for Spain and the first to use the regional approach for the country. Vector autoregressive Bayesian models and vector error correction models have been used for national data, and Bayesian panel data models and fixed effects model for regional data. The results confirm that forecasts based on Google Trends data are more accurate in predicting the youth unemployment rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Mihaela Simionescu & Javier Cifuentes-Faura, 2022. "Forecasting National and Regional Youth Unemployment in Spain Using Google Trends," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1187-1216, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:soinre:v:164:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s11205-022-02984-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11205-022-02984-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Mustafa Yurtsever, 2023. "Unemployment rate forecasting: LSTM-GRU hybrid approach," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 57(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Ted CT Fong & Paul SF Yip, 2023. "Prevalence of hikikomori and associations with suicidal ideation, suicide stigma, and help-seeking among 2,022 young adults in Hong Kong," International Journal of Social Psychiatry, , vol. 69(7), pages 1768-1780, November.
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