IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v121y2025i15d10.1007_s11069-025-07499-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An economic impact assessment of the use of earth observation information in flood hazard communication

Author

Listed:
  • Richard Bernknopf

    (American Geosciences Institute)

  • Yusuke Kuwayama

    (University of Maryland, Baltimore County)

  • Benjamin Zaitchik

    (Johns Hopkins University)

  • Matthew Rodell

    (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center)

  • Augusto Getirana

    (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center)

  • Andrea Thorstensen

    (St. Cloud State University)

  • Samiha Shahreen

    (Resources for the Future)

Abstract

Flood hazard forecasts are critical information to reduce the impacts of a disaster. Improved operational forecasts can lead to timelier decisions, which translates into more cost-effective pre-flood mitigation decisions. In this paper, we quantify this economic value of an improved forecast for two types of independent empirical adjustments to National Weather Service Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP). The North Central River Forecast Center (NCRFC) adjusts the ESP to produce an operational seasonal river discharge forecast with forecaster intervention and complements the forecast with an experimental empirical soil moisture adjustment from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). In a retrospective case study, we apply the complementary NCFRC + GRACE forecast to increase the confidence in implementing flood mitigation earlier in flood hazard planning. Specifically, we focus on the reforecast of the 2011 spring season for the Sheyenne River in North Dakota and find that flood protection decisions in Valley City, ND could have been made 5 days earlier and mitigation costs could have been reduced by $1.7 million.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Bernknopf & Yusuke Kuwayama & Benjamin Zaitchik & Matthew Rodell & Augusto Getirana & Andrea Thorstensen & Samiha Shahreen, 2025. "An economic impact assessment of the use of earth observation information in flood hazard communication," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(15), pages 17913-17933, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:15:d:10.1007_s11069-025-07499-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07499-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-025-07499-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-025-07499-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:15:d:10.1007_s11069-025-07499-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.