IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/minecn/v31y2018i1d10.1007_s13563-018-0150-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An analysis of iron ore prices during the latest commodity boom

Author

Listed:
  • Linda Wårell

    (Economics Unit Luleå University of Technology)

Abstract

This paper performs a quantitative analysis of iron ore prices, and is an extension of Wårell (2014), which analyzed the change in iron ore pricing regime on iron ore prices using data from 2003 until September 2012. However, considering that the iron ore market still was characterized by surging prices in 2012, it is of interest to see if the same conclusions hold today when the latest commodity boom has come to an end. The quantitative analysis uses monthly data between January 2003 and June 2017, and performs both statistical tests for structural breaks and a reduced price regression of the most important factors for iron ore prices during the time period. The overall results indicate that the change in pricing regime does not have a significant impact on the iron ore prices when extending the time period; rather, it is the end of the commodity boom in 2014 that is picked up as a structural break in the price series. Furthermore, results regarding whether the variables are cointegrated are more inconclusive when analyzing the entire commodity boom. However, the result that GDP growth in China has had the strongest impact on iron ore prices is though robust when extending the time period. To conclude, even though the commodity boom now has come to an end the developments in China still seems to be the most influential factor determining international iron ore prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Linda Wårell, 2018. "An analysis of iron ore prices during the latest commodity boom," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 31(1), pages 203-216, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:minecn:v:31:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s13563-018-0150-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s13563-018-0150-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13563-018-0150-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s13563-018-0150-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    3. Clemente, Jesus & Montanes, Antonio & Reyes, Marcelo, 1998. "Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 175-182, May.
    4. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    5. Torries, Thomas F., 1988. "Competitive cost analysis in the mineral industries : The example of nickel," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 193-204, September.
    6. John T Cuddington & Daniel Jerrett, 2008. "Super Cycles in Real Metals Prices?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(4), pages 541-565, December.
    7. David Humphreys, 2015. "The Remaking of the Mining Industry," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-137-44201-7.
    8. Radetzki, Marian & Eggert, Roderick G. & Lagos, Gustavo & Lima, Marcos & Tilton, John E., 2008. "The boom in mineral markets: How long might it last?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 125-128, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hicham AYAD, 2019. "Co-integration with regime shift between government expenditure and poverty reduction in Algeria," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(619), S), pages 205-216, Summer.
    2. Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2012. "Does trade openness affect long run growth? Cointegration, causality and forecast error variance decomposition tests for Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2325-2339.
    3. Turgut Türsoy, 2017. "Causality between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates in Turkey: Empirical Evidence from the ARDL Bounds Test and a Combined Cointegration Approach," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-10, March.
    4. Dias, Rui & da Silva, Jacinto Vidigal & Dionísio, Andreia, 2019. "Financial markets of the LAC region: Does the crisis influence the financial integration?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 160-173.
    5. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    6. Kanjilal, Kakali & Ghosh, Sajal, 2013. "Environmental Kuznet’s curve for India: Evidence from tests for cointegration with unknown structuralbreaks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 509-515.
    7. Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2013. "Linkages between inflation, economic growth and terrorism in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 496-506.
    8. Mesbah Fathy SHARAF, 2017. "Energy consumption and economic growth in Egypt: A disaggregated causality analysis with structural breaks," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 46, pages 59-76.
    9. Rosa, Franco & Vasciaveo, Michela & Weaver, Robert D., 2014. "Agricultural and oil commodities: price transmission and market integration between US and Italy," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 3(2), pages 1-25, August.
    10. Waheed A. Banafea, 2014. "Structural Breaks and Causality Relationship between Economic Growth and Energy Consumption in Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(4), pages 726-734.
    11. Muñoz, M. Pilar & Dickey, David A., 2009. "Are electricity prices affected by the US dollar to Euro exchange rate? The Spanish case," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 857-866, November.
    12. Nooman Rebei & Rashid Sbia, 2021. "Transitory and permanent shocks in the global market for crude oil," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(7), pages 1047-1064, November.
    13. Voronkova, Svitlana, 2004. "Equity market integration in Central European emerging markets: A cointegration analysis with shifting regimes," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 633-647.
    14. Muhammad Ahad, 2016. "Does Tourism-led Growth Hypothesis exist in Pakistan? A Freshlook from Combine Cointegration and Causality Approach with Structural Breaks," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 4(2), pages 94-111, February.
    15. Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh & Christophe Rault, 2016. "Recent estimates of exchange rate pass-through to import prices in the euro area," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(1), pages 69-105, February.
    16. Yau, Hwey-Yun & Nieh, Chien-Chung, 2006. "Interrelationships among stock prices of Taiwan and Japan and NTD/Yen exchange rate," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 535-552, June.
    17. Tang, Chor Foon, 2011. "Tourism, real output and real effective exchange rate in Malaysia: a view from rolling sub-samples," MPRA Paper 29379, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Wu, Jyh-lin, 1998. "Are budget deficits "too large"?: The evidence from Taiwan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 519-528.
    19. Li, Sisi & Khan, Sufyan Ullah & Yao, Yao & Chen, George S. & Zhang, Lin & Salim, Ruhul & Huo, Jiaying, 2022. "Estimating the long-run crude oil demand function of China: Some new evidence and policy options," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    20. Chiappini, Raphaël & Jégourel, Yves & Raymond, Paul, 2019. "Towards a worldwide integrated market? New evidence on the dynamics of U.S., European and Asian natural gas prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 545-565.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:minecn:v:31:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s13563-018-0150-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.