IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/masfgc/v30y2025i5d10.1007_s11027-025-10211-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Extreme weather events and crop diversification: climate change adaptation in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Elena Beatriz Piedra-Bonilla

    (Universidad Ecotec
    Universidade Federal de Viçosa)

  • Dênis Antônio Cunha

    (Universidade Federal de Viçosa)

  • Marcelo José Braga

    (Universidade Federal de Viçosa)

  • Laís Rosa Oliveira

    (Universidade Federal de Viçosa)

Abstract

Extreme weather events can considerably impact agriculture because crop production depends on favorable climatic conditions. Additionally, extreme climatic events are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. However, crop diversification helps to reduce vulnerability to climate risks. In this context, the present research analyzes the process of agricultural diversification, understanding its determinants and role as an adaptive measure in Brazil. Thus, fixed-effects panel models allow us to estimate the effects of extreme weather indices on crop diversification in 3818 Brazilian municipalities. We find that Consecutive Dry Days (CDD), Dry Days (Rn1mm), and Hot days (TX90p) positively affect diversification, while for Frosts (FD) and Extreme Precipitation Days (R20mm), there are non-statistically significant effects. So, the response to diversification as an adaptive strategy would depend on the type of climatic shock. Results show that access to technical assistance, farm size, and corn production significantly influenced diversification. Then, we analyze the effect of climate change on diversification according to future scenarios. Based on simulations, Brazilian municipalities would diversify their crops as the climate scenario is expected to get more severe. The simulations predict that the frequency of hot days will increase between 2045 and 2065. Therefore, crop diversification is expected to increase in both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. These results can help promote the use of resilient technologies by considering the types of extreme weather events and regional differences and tailoring policies to meet the specific challenges farmers face in each region.

Suggested Citation

  • Elena Beatriz Piedra-Bonilla & Dênis Antônio Cunha & Marcelo José Braga & Laís Rosa Oliveira, 2025. "Extreme weather events and crop diversification: climate change adaptation in Brazil," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 30(5), pages 1-33, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:30:y:2025:i:5:d:10.1007_s11027-025-10211-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s11027-025-10211-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11027-025-10211-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11027-025-10211-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Extreme weather events; Crop diversification; Climate change adaptation; Simpson index;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q00 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:30:y:2025:i:5:d:10.1007_s11027-025-10211-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.