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Simulating housing prices with UrbanSim: predictive capacity and sensitivity analysis

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  • Marko Kryvobokov

    ()

  • Aurélie Mercier

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  • Alain Bonnafous

    ()

  • Dominique Bouf

    ()

Abstract

Housing prices in the Lyon Urban area are simulated with the land use framework UrbanSim interacting with the transportation model MOSART. We focus on the Real Estate Price Model of the UrbanSim framework, which proposes the ordinary least square regression. In our simulation, the alternative geographically weighted regression methodology is applied. The model of housing prices is calibrated using a nine-year back-casting period. The calibrated model, applied in simulation, provides price dynamics similar to actual one in the very centre of Lyon. Farther from the city centre, where the available data on actual sales exist, simulated prices tend to be understated. Thus, mainly only the most central locations manifest realistic price dynamics. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates the model’s ability to capture changes in employment accessibility on price dynamics. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Marko Kryvobokov & Aurélie Mercier & Alain Bonnafous & Dominique Bouf, 2013. "Simulating housing prices with UrbanSim: predictive capacity and sensitivity analysis," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 31-44, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:lsprsc:v:6:y:2013:i:1:p:31-44
    DOI: 10.1007/s12076-012-0084-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. de Palma, Andre & Picard, Nathalie & Waddell, Paul, 2007. "Discrete choice models with capacity constraints: An empirical analysis of the housing market of the greater Paris region," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 204-230, September.
    2. Malpezzi, Stephen, 1999. "A Simple Error Correction Model of House Prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 27-62, March.
    3. Löchl, Michael & Axhausen, Kay W., 2010. "Modelling hedonic residential rents for land use and transport simulation while considering spatial effects," The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, vol. 3(2), pages 39-63.
    4. de Palma, Andre & Motamedi, Kiarash & Picard, Nathalie & Waddell, Paul, 2005. "A model of residential location choice with endogenous housing prices and traffic for the Paris region," European Transport \ Trasporti Europei, ISTIEE, Institute for the Study of Transport within the European Economic Integration, issue 31, pages 67-82.
    5. Di Zio, Simone & Montanari, Armando & Staniscia, Barbara, 2010. "Simulation of urban development in the City of Rome: Framework, methodology, and problem solving," The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, vol. 3(2), pages 85-105.
    6. Patterson, Zachary & Kryvobokov, Marko & Marchal, Fabrice & Bierlaire, Michel, 2010. "Disaggregate models with aggregate data: Two UrbanSim applications," The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, vol. 3(2), pages 5-37.
    7. Alain Bonnafous & Yves Crozet & Aurélie Mercier & Nicolas Ovtracht & Pierre-Yves Péguy & Florence Puech, 2011. "MOSART et le projet PLAINSUD : une plateforme de modélisation et de simulation de l’accessibilité pour l’aide à la décision et l’aménagement du territoire," Post-Print halshs-01729255, HAL.
    8. Luc Anselin, 2010. "Thirty years of spatial econometrics," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 89(1), pages 3-25, March.
    9. Alain Bonnafous & Marko Kryvobokov, 2011. "Insight into apartment attributes and location with factors and principal components," International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 4(2), pages 155-171, May.
    10. Waddell, Paul & Ulfarsson, Gudmundur F. & Franklin, Joel P. & Lobb, John, 2007. "Incorporating land use in metropolitan transportation planning," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(5), pages 382-410, June.
    11. Marko Kryvobokov, 2010. "Is it worth identifying service employment (sub)centres when modelling apartment prices?," Post-Print halshs-00577899, HAL.
    12. Waddell, Paul & Wang, Liming & Charlton, Billy & Olsen, Aksel, 2010. "Microsimulating parcel-level land use and activity-based travel: Development of a prototype application in San Francisco," The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, vol. 3(2), pages 65-84.
    13. S L Handy & D A Niemeier, 1997. "Measuring Accessibility: An Exploration of Issues and Alternatives," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 29(7), pages 1175-1194, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Girum Dagnachew Abate, 2017. "Spatio-temporal dynamics of house prices in the USA," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 141-147, July.
    2. Marko Kryvobokov, 2015. "A two-level regional approach to residential location choice model," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 181-196, July.

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