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The heterogeneous effects of COVID-19 on labor market flows: evidence from administrative data

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  • Alessandra Casarico

    (Bocconi University
    CESIfo
    Dondena Research center on Social Dynamics and Public policy and Covid Crisis Lab)

  • Salvatore Lattanzio

    (Bank of Italy, Directorate General for Economics, Statistics and Research)

Abstract

We investigate the short-term effects of COVID-19 on labor market flows and how they are mediated by labor market policy. Using Italian administrative data on a sample of active contracts between 2009 and the second quarter of 2020, we show that, before the pandemic, a higher share of female compared to male, young compared to old and low educated compared to high educated workers is employed in non-essential activities. When we look at the change in hirings and separations, from the 9th week of 2020 - the time when first cases and deaths due to COVID-19 were recorded -, we find a pronounced drop in hirings and endings of fixed-term contracts. Layoffs and quits increase after the 9th week, and then decline significantly, reflecting the effects of government intervention. The lifting of the lockdown triggers a slow recovery of labor market flows. Young workers, those on temporary contracts, low-educated workers, those employed in the South and those with no opportunities of working from home experience a greater decline in separation probability, indicating that government policy partly protected them from the labor market impact of the recession. The decline in the separation probability for women is lower than that for men.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandra Casarico & Salvatore Lattanzio, 2022. "The heterogeneous effects of COVID-19 on labor market flows: evidence from administrative data," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(3), pages 537-558, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joecin:v:20:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s10888-021-09522-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10888-021-09522-6
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    Cited by:

    1. Giulia Bettin & Isabella Giorgetti & Stefano Staffolani, 2024. "The impact of Covid-19 lockdown on the gender gap in the Italian labour market," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-33, March.
    2. Luca Citino & Edoardo Di Porto & Andrea Linarello & Francesca Lotti & Enrico Sette, 2023. "Creation, destruction and reallocation of jobs in italian firms: an analysis based on administrative data," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 751, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Zarifhonarvar, Ali, 2022. "A Survey on the Impact of Covid-19 on the Labor Market," EconStor Preprints 265549, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    4. Benitez-Rueda, Miguel & Domínguez, Nicolás & Parrado, Eric, 2023. "Mobility Restrictions and Automation in the Developing World: Evidence from Peru's Labor Market," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12823, Inter-American Development Bank.
    5. Gordon Betcherman & Nicholas Giannakopoulos & Ioannis Laliotis & Ioanna Pantelaiou & Mauro Testaverde & Giannis Tzimas, 2023. "The short-term impact of the 2020 pandemic lockdown on employment in Greece," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(3), pages 1273-1307, September.
    6. Branimir Jovanović & Michael Landesmann & Oliver Reiter & Bernhard Schütz, 2023. "Structural Change, Income Distribution and Unemployment Related to COVID-19: An Agent-based Model," wiiw Working Papers 223, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    7. Basso, Gaetano & Depalo, Domenico & Lattanzio, Salvatore, 2023. "Worker flows and reallocation during the recovery," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    8. Gaetano Basso & Domenico Depalo & Salvatore Lattanzio, 2022. "Job flows and reallocation during the recovery," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 704, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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