IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jeicoo/v17y2022i3d10.1007_s11403-021-00342-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic policy uncertainty, investor sentiment and financial stability—an empirical study based on the time varying parameter-vector autoregression model

Author

Listed:
  • Xin-Zhou Qi

    (Fudan University)

  • Zhong Ning

    (Fudan University)

  • Meng Qin

    (Party School of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China)

Abstract

This paper applies the time varying parameter-vector autoregression model to explore the dynamic relationship between economic policy uncertainty, investor sentiment and financial stability in China in different periods and at different time points. The empirical results show that economic policy uncertainty has an obvious negative impact on investor sentiment before 2012 and financial stability in the short term, and the influence of economic policy uncertainty on investor sentiment is greater than that of economic policy uncertainty on financial stability. These influences were more significant during the period of the global financial crisis in 2008. Moreover, investor sentiment had a positive and gradually increasing effect on financial stability, while after 2010, the positive impact gradually weakened. Furthermore, economic policy uncertainty is negatively affected by financial stability, and the effect of financial stability on investor sentiment is positive. In terms of mediating effects, economic policy uncertainty has an indirect impact on financial stability through investor sentiment and vice versa. This paper provides a new solution to economic problems explored in behavioral finance research. Additionally, Chinese government agencies can achieve the goal of preventing financial crises and maintaining financial stability by monitoring investor sentiment and implementing targeted economic policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Xin-Zhou Qi & Zhong Ning & Meng Qin, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty, investor sentiment and financial stability—an empirical study based on the time varying parameter-vector autoregression model," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(3), pages 779-799, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jeicoo:v:17:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s11403-021-00342-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11403-021-00342-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11403-021-00342-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11403-021-00342-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    2. Lubos Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2012. "Uncertainty about Government Policy and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1219-1264, August.
    3. Scott Brave & R. Andrew Butters, 2011. "Monitoring financial stability: a financial conditions index approach," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 35(Q I), pages 22-43.
    4. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    5. Onour, Ibrahim, 2015. "Modeling inflation dynamics in a conflict economy," MPRA Paper 63527, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
    7. Matsusaka, John G & Sbordone, Argia M, 1995. "Consumer Confidence and Economic Fluctuations," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(2), pages 296-318, April.
    8. Baker, Malcolm & Wurgler, Jeffrey & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "Global, local, and contagious investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 272-287.
    9. Niţoi, Mihai & Pochea, Maria Miruna, 2020. "Time-varying dependence in European equity markets: A contagion and investor sentiment driven analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 133-147.
    10. Shi-Qi LIU & Xin-Zhou QI & Meng QIN & Chi-Wei SU, 2019. "Financial Stability or Instability? Impact from Chinese Consumer Confidence," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 25-43, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yunpeng Su & Jia Li & Baochen Yang & Yunbi An, 2024. "The Impacts of Policy Uncertainty on Asset Prices: Evidence from China’s Market," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 31(4), pages 1087-1133, December.
    2. Ihsen Abid & Salha Ben Salem & Wajdi Frikha, 2024. "Impact of political instability of monetary policy conduct and economic activity recovery: empirical investigation," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(12), pages 1-18, December.
    3. Norashikin Adam & Norzahidah Yacob & Wan Rasyidah Wan Musa & Khairunnisa’ Yussof & Siti Musliha Mohd Idris, 2024. "The Effect of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty on Selected Islamic Stock Market Returns," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 8(10), pages 195-210, October.
    4. Afreen Sorathiya & Pradnya Saval & Manha Sorathiya, 2024. "Data-Driven Sustainable Investment Strategies: Integrating ESG, Financial Data Science, and Time Series Analysis for Alpha Generation," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-23, April.
    5. Fadekemi Chidinma Adeloye & Olayinka Olawoyin & Chinaemerem Daniel, 2024. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Financial Markets in the United State," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 8(6), pages 998-1016, June.
    6. Wu, Jie & Rasool, Zeeshan & Ali, Sajid & Nazar, Raima, 2024. "Between policy swings and financial shockwaves: Asymmetric impact of economic policy uncertainty on financial stability in high-volatility nations," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    7. Qiao, Xingzhi & Zhu, Huiming & Zhang, Zhongqingyang & Mao, Weifang, 2022. "Time-frequency transmission mechanism of EPU, investor sentiment and financial assets: A multiscale TVP-VAR connectedness analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Sensoy, Ahmet & Eraslan, Veysel & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "Sensitivity of US equity returns to economic policy uncertainty and investor sentiments," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    2. Cheng, Hang & Shi, Yongdong, 2020. "Forecasting China's stock market variance," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    3. Byomakesh Debata & Jitendra Mahakud, 2018. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock market liquidity," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 10(1), pages 112-135, April.
    4. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Raza, Naveed & Balcilar, Mehmet & Ali, Sajid & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2017. "Can economic policy uncertainty and investors sentiment predict commodities returns and volatility?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 208-218.
    5. Baur, Dirk G. & Smales, Lee A., 2020. "Hedging geopolitical risk with precious metals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    6. Gavriilidis, Konstantinos & Kallinterakis, Vasileios & Montone, Maurizio, 2024. "Political uncertainty and institutional herding," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    7. Jian Chen & Fuwei Jiang & Guoshi Tong, 2017. "Economic policy uncertainty in China and stock market expected returns," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(5), pages 1265-1286, December.
    8. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chen, Mei-Ping, 2021. "The effects of investor attention and policy uncertainties on cross-border country exchange-traded fund returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 830-852.
    9. Sakariyahu, Rilwan & Lawal, Rodiat & Adigun, Rasheed & Paterson, Audrey & Johan, Sofia, 2024. "One crash, too many: Global uncertainty, sentiment factors and cryptocurrency market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    10. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Tran, Vuong Thao, 2018. "Can economic policy uncertainty predict stock returns? Global evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 134-150.
    11. Yuan, Ying & Wang, Haiying & Jin, Xiu, 2022. "Pandemic-driven financial contagion and investor behavior: Evidence from the COVID-19," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    12. Mbarki, Imen & Omri, Abdelwahed & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr, 2022. "From sentiment to systemic risk: Information transmission in Asia-Pacific stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    13. Ezer Ayadi & Noura Ben Mbarek, 2025. "The Dynamic Effects of Economic Uncertainties and Geopolitical Risks on Saudi Stock Market Returns: Evidence from Local Projections," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 18(5), pages 1-35, May.
    14. Luo, Yan & Zhang, Chenyang, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock price crash risk," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    15. Wang, Yizhi, 2022. "Volatility spillovers across NFTs news attention and financial markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    16. Cheng, Feiyang & Wang, Chunfeng & Cui, Xin & Wu, Ji & He, Feng, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty exposure and stock price bubbles: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    17. Yousaf, Imran & Bejaoui, Azza & Ali, Shoaib & Li, Yanshuang, 2024. "Demystifying the dynamic relationship between news sentiment index and ESG stocks: Evidence from time-frequency wavelet analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    18. Gao, Jie & Fan, Chunguo & Liu, Ting & Bai, Xiuran & Li, Wenyong & Tan, Huimin, 2025. "Embracing market dynamics in the post-COVID era: A data-driven analysis of investor sentiment and behavioral characteristics in stock index futures returns," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    19. Qadan, Mahmoud, 2019. "Risk appetite, idiosyncratic volatility and expected returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    20. Bampinas, Georgios & Panagiotidis, Theodore & Papapanagiotou, Georgios, 2023. "Oil shocks and investor attention," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 68-81.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic policy uncertainty; Investor sentiment; Financial stability; Time varying parameter-vector autoregression model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jeicoo:v:17:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s11403-021-00342-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.