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A climate trend analysis of Ethiopia: examining subseasonal climate impacts on crops and pasture conditions

Author

Listed:
  • Molly E. Brown

    (University of Maryland)

  • Chris Funk

    (U.S. Geological Survey
    University of California, Santa Barbara)

  • Diego Pedreros

    (University of California, Santa Barbara)

  • Diriba Korecha

    (FEWS NET)

  • Melesse Lemma

    (Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency)

  • James Rowland

    (U.S. Geological Survey)

  • Emily Williams

    (University of California, Santa Barbara)

  • James Verdin

    (U.S. Geological Survey)

Abstract

Ethiopia experiences significant climate-induced drought and stress on crop and livestock productivity, contributing to widespread food insecurity. Here, we present subseasonal crop water stress analyses that indicate degrading, growing conditions along Ethiopia’s eastern highlands, including productive and populated highland regions. These seasonally shifting areas of increasing water stress stretch from the north to south across eastern Ethiopia, intersecting regions of acute food insecurity and/or high population. Crop model simulations indicate that between 1982 and 2014, parts of eastern Amhara and eastern Oromia experienced increasing water deficits during the critical sowing, flowering, and ripening periods of crop growth. These trends occurred while population in these regions increased by 143% between 2000 and 2015. These areas of enhanced crop water stress in south-central Ethiopia coincide with regions of high population growth and ongoing crop extensification. Conversely, large regions of relatively unpopulated western Ethiopia are becoming wetter. These areas may therefore be good targets for agricultural development.

Suggested Citation

  • Molly E. Brown & Chris Funk & Diego Pedreros & Diriba Korecha & Melesse Lemma & James Rowland & Emily Williams & James Verdin, 2017. "A climate trend analysis of Ethiopia: examining subseasonal climate impacts on crops and pasture conditions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 142(1), pages 169-182, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:142:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-017-1948-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1948-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rancourt, Marie-Ève & Bellavance, François & Goentzel, Jarrod, 2014. "Market analysis and transportation procurement for food aid in Ethiopia," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 198-219.
    2. Sabates-Wheeler, Rachel & Lind, Jeremy & Hoddinott, John, 2013. "Implementing Social Protection in Agro-pastoralist and Pastoralist Areas: How Local Distribution Structures Moderate PSNP Outcomes in Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-12.
    3. Headey, Derek & Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum & You, Liangzhi, 2014. "Diversification and Development in Pastoralist Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 200-213.
    4. Chamberlin, Jordan & Schmidt, Emily, 2012. "Ethiopian Agriculture: A dynamic geographic perspective," IFPRI book chapters, in: Food and agriculture in Ethiopia: Progress and policy challenges, chapter 2, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Glewwe, Paul, 1990. "The measurement of income inequality under inflation : Correction formulae for three inequality measures," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 43-67, January.
    6. UNDP Africa, 2012. "Africa Human Development Report 2012 Towards a Food Secure Future," UNDP Africa Reports 267636, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
    7. Chris Funk & Molly Brown, 2009. "Declining global per capita agricultural production and warming oceans threaten food security," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 1(3), pages 271-289, September.
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    Cited by:

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    4. Jithitikulchai, Theepakorn, 2023. "The effect of climate change and agricultural diversification on the total value of agricultural output of farm households in Sub-Saharan Africa," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 18(2), October.

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