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Adapting dryland agriculture to climate change: Farming implications and research and development needs in Western Australia

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  • Senthold Asseng
  • David Pannell

Abstract

The Western Australian wheat-belt has experienced more rainfall decline than any other wheat-cropping region in Australia. Future climate change scenarios suggest that the Western Australian wheat-belt is likely to see greater future reductions in rainfall than other regions, together with a further increase in temperatures. While these changes appear adverse for water-limited rain-fed agriculture, a close analysis of the changes and their impacts reveals a more complex story. Twentieth century changes in rainfall, temperature and atmospheric CO 2 concentration have had little or no overall impact on wheat yields. Changes in agricultural technology and farming systems have had much larger impacts. Contrary to some claims, there is no scientific or economic justification for any immediate actions by farmers to adapt to long-term climate change in the Western Australian wheat-belt, beyond normal responses to short-term variations in weather. Rather than promoting current change, the most important policy response is research and development to enable farmers to facilitate future adaptation to climate change. Research priorities are proposed. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

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  • Senthold Asseng & David Pannell, 2013. "Adapting dryland agriculture to climate change: Farming implications and research and development needs in Western Australia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(2), pages 167-181, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:118:y:2013:i:2:p:167-181
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0623-1
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    2. Brett A Bryan & Jianjun Huai & Jeff Connor & Lei Gao & Darran King & John Kandulu & Gang Zhao, 2015. "What Actually Confers Adaptive Capacity? Insights from Agro-Climatic Vulnerability of Australian Wheat," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(2), pages 1-20, February.
    3. Andrew L. Fletcher & Chao Chen & Noboru Ota & Roger A. Lawes & Yvette M. Oliver, 2020. "Has historic climate change affected the spatial distribution of water-limited wheat yield across Western Australia?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 159(3), pages 347-364, April.
    4. Thamo, Tas & Addai, Donkor & Pannell, David J. & Robertson, Michael J. & Thomas, Dean T. & Young, John M., 2017. "Climate change impacts and farm-level adaptation: Economic analysis of a mixed cropping–livestock system," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 99-108.
    5. Nasca, J.A. & Feldkamp, C.R. & Arroquy, J.I. & Colombatto, D., 2015. "Efficiency and stability in subtropical beef cattle grazing systems in the northwest of Argentina," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 85-96.
    6. Uttam Khanal & Clevo Wilson & Boon L. Lee & Viet-Ngu Hoang, 2018. "Climate change adaptation strategies and food productivity in Nepal: a counterfactual analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(4), pages 575-590, June.
    7. Tristan D. Pearce & Evelyn H. Rodríguez & David Fawcett & James D. Ford, 2018. "How Is Australia Adapting to Climate Change Based on a Systematic Review?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-14, September.
    8. Ibrahim M. A. Soliman, 2019. "Forecasting Model of Wheat Yield in Relation to Rainfall Variability in North Africa Countries," International Journal of Food and Beverage Manufacturing and Business Models (IJFBMBM), IGI Global, vol. 4(2), pages 1-17, July.
    9. Chen, Chao & Fletcher, Andrew & Ota, Noboru & Oliver, Yvette & Lawes, Roger, 2023. "Integrating long fallow into wheat-based cropping systems in Western Australia: Spatial pattern of yield and economic responses," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    10. Anwar, Muhuddin Rajin & Liu, De Li & Farquharson, Robert & Macadam, Ian & Abadi, Amir & Finlayson, John & Wang, Bin & Ramilan, Thiagarajah, 2015. "Climate change impacts on phenology and yields of five broadacre crops at four climatologically distinct locations in Australia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 133-144.
    11. Ross Kingwell, 2021. "Making Agriculture Carbon Neutral Amid a Changing Climate: The Case of South-Western Australia," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-20, November.
    12. Alejandro del Pozo & Nidia Brunel-Saldias & Alejandra Engler & Samuel Ortega-Farias & Cesar Acevedo-Opazo & Gustavo A. Lobos & Roberto Jara-Rojas & Marco A. Molina-Montenegro, 2019. "Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies of Agriculture in Mediterranean-Climate Regions (MCRs)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-16, May.
    13. Jianjun Huai, 2016. "Role of Livelihood Capital in Reducing Climatic Vulnerability: Insights of Australian Wheat from 1990–2010," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(3), pages 1-18, March.
    14. Penny, Jessica & Ordens, Carlos M. & Barnett, Steve & Djordjević, Slobodan & Chen, Albert S., 2023. "Vineyards, vegetables or business-as-usual? Stakeholder-informed land use change modelling to predict the future of a groundwater-dependent prime-wine region under climate change," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 287(C).
    15. David H. Cobon & Allyson A. J. Williams & Brendan Power & David McRae & Peter Davis, 2016. "Risk matrix approach useful in adapting agriculture to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 173-189, September.
    16. Lan Mu & Lan Fang & Yuhong Liu & Chencheng Wang, 2020. "Identifying Barriers and Enablers for Climate Change Adaptation of Farmers in Semi-Arid North-Western China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-21, September.

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