Unveiling the impact of intelligent transformation on economic resilience toward sustainable solutions: a spatio–temporal heterogeneity perspective

Intelligent transformation is crucial for driving economic development. Since the advent of Industry 4.0, China’s intelligent transformation has advanced rapidly, drawing attention to its impacts on economic resilience. What are the heterogeneities in the impacts at different times and in different cities? What factors influence its effects? To address these questions, based on the panel data set of prefecture-level cities in China from 2007 to 2019, we conducted analyses using the Vertical and Horizontal Scatter Degree (VHSD) method, the Bartik IV method, the Panel Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (PGTWR) model, and the correlation coefficient method, and revealed the following key findings: (1) during the study period, both intelligent transformation and economic resilience of Chinese cities increased, displaying a spatial pattern of “East high-West low”; (2) intelligent transformation improved economic resilience, its effect was weaker during the crisis period and showed a fluctuating yet rise during the recovery period; (3) the resilience effect of intelligent transformation showed a spatial pattern, decreasing from “Southeast to Northwest”. In most cities, the effect size exhibited diminishing marginal effects; (4) the rationalization of industrial structure and increased investments in science and technology directly contributed to economic resilience, and also amplified the effect of intelligent transformation. These findings contribute to the understanding of the resilience effects of intelligent transformation and provide references for local governments to formulate differentiated strategies for enhancing economic resilience. In addition, the research framework of this paper also offers referable research ideas for other countries to conduct studies on the economic resilience effects of intelligent transformation.