IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/agfoec/v12y2024i1d10.1186_s40100-024-00296-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting the differences in food security with and without the Russia–Ukraine conflict scenarios over different regions of the world

Author

Listed:
  • Yuan Xu

    (Beijing Normal University
    Beijing Normal University
    Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai))

  • Jieming Chou

    (Beijing Normal University
    Beijing Normal University
    Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai))

  • Zhongxiu Wang

    (Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences
    Alliance of International Science Organizations in the Belt and Road Region)

  • Wenjie Dong

    (Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai))

Abstract

The Russia–Ukraine conflict has caused a global food security crisis, impacting sustainable development goals. Predicting the crisis’s impact on food security is crucial for global stability by 2030. From a macro-perspective, this paper constructs a food security evaluation indicator system and a food security composite index (FSCI), and using the autoregressive integrated moving average model to predict the variations in the FSCI for different regions of the world from 2023 to 2030 under scenarios with or without the “Russia–Ukraine conflict.” By quantitatively analyzing the differences in these variations, the potential impact of the conflict on regional food security is assessed. The results conclude that the global food security level progressively improved over the past 20 years. The FSCI in Europe, Latin America and Caribbean increased at a faster pace than the global average, with growth rates of 0.035/(10 years) and 0.034/(10 years), respectively. However, the FSCI in the Sub-Saharan Africa showed a declining trend. By 2030, it is expected that the Russia–Ukraine conflict will have a significant impact on the food security of Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa, with a contribution of 1.49% and 0.29%, respectively. However, the impact of the conflict on food security levels in Asia and Latin America and Caribbean is relatively small. This study introduces a new quantitative method to assess and project the overall influence of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on food security. The findings contribute crucial scientific support for effectively evaluating and monitoring the sustainable development objectives related to global food security.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuan Xu & Jieming Chou & Zhongxiu Wang & Wenjie Dong, 2024. "Predicting the differences in food security with and without the Russia–Ukraine conflict scenarios over different regions of the world," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 12(1), pages 1-20, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:agfoec:v:12:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1186_s40100-024-00296-9
    DOI: 10.1186/s40100-024-00296-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1186/s40100-024-00296-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1186/s40100-024-00296-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chen, Shuai & Chen, Xiaoguang & Xu, Jintao, 2016. "Impacts of climate change on agriculture: Evidence from China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 105-124.
    2. Mohamed Behnassi & Mahjoub El Haiba, 2022. "Implications of the Russia–Ukraine war for global food security," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(6), pages 754-755, June.
    3. Meital Izraelov & Jacques Silber, 2019. "An assessment of the global food security index," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(5), pages 1135-1152, October.
    4. Caccavale, Oscar Maria & Giuffrida, Valerio, 2020. "The Proteus composite index: Towards a better metric for global food security," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    5. Fan Feng & Ningyuan Jia & Faqin Lin, 2023. "Quantifying the impact of Russia–Ukraine crisis on food security and trade pattern: evidence from a structural general equilibrium trade model," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 15(2), pages 241-258, January.
    6. Saskia Osendarp & Gerda Verburg & Zulfiqar Bhutta & Robert E. Black & Saskia de Pee & Cecilia Fabrizio & Derek Headey & Rebecca Heidkamp & David Laborde & Marie T. Ruel, 2022. "Act now before Ukraine war plunges millions into malnutrition," Nature, Nature, vol. 604(7907), pages 620-624, April.
    7. Yuan, Chaoqing & Liu, Sifeng & Fang, Zhigeng, 2016. "Comparison of China's primary energy consumption forecasting by using ARIMA (the autoregressive integrated moving average) model and GM(1,1) model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 384-390.
    8. Joanna B. Upton & Jennifer Denno Cissé & Christopher B. Barrett, 2016. "Food security as resilience: reconciling definition and measurement," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 47(S1), pages 135-147, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Raluca Georgiana Robu & Alina Petronela Alexoaei & Valentin Cojanu & Dumitru Miron, 2024. "The cereal network: a baseline approach to current configurations of trade communities," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 12(1), pages 1-20, December.
    2. Seyed Ashkan Zarghami & Jantanee Dumrak, 2024. "Evaluating Vulnerability of Supply Chain Networks to Capacity Reduction," Global Journal of Flexible Systems Management, Springer;Global Institute of Flexible Systems Management, vol. 25(3), pages 629-646, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Dai, Yun-Shi & Duong, Kiet Tuan & Dai, Peng-Fei, 2024. "The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the extreme risk spillovers between agricultural futures and spots," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 91-111.
    2. Sharmiladevi Jekka Chandrasekaran, 2024. "Agricultural Value Added in BRICS: A Panel Data Study," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(3), pages 171-178, May.
    3. Faruk Urak, 2025. "Unraveling Turkish agricultural market challenges: Consequences of COVID‐19, Russia–Ukraine conflict, and energy market dynamics," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 307-341, April.
    4. Abu Hatab, Assem & Lagerkvist, Carl-Johan, 2024. "Perceived business risks and observed impacts of the Russian-Ukraine war among small- and medium-sized agri-food value chain enterprises in Egypt," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    5. Valiant O Odhiambo & Sheryl L Hendriks & Eness P Mutsvangwa-Sammie, 2021. "The effect of an objective weighting of the global food security index’s natural resources and resilience component on country scores and ranking," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 13(6), pages 1343-1357, December.
    6. Khalil A. Ammar & Ahmed M. S. Kheir & Beshir M. Ali & Balan Sundarakani & Ioannis Manikas, 2024. "Developing an analytical framework for estimating food security indicators in the United Arab Emirates: A review," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 5689-5708, March.
    7. Tatar, Maryna, 2023. "Agricultural sector development and elasticity of its links with the food security level," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 9(4), December.
    8. Linus Nyiwul & Niraj P. Koirala, 2022. "Role of foreign direct investments in agriculture, forestry and fishing in developing countries," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-12, December.
    9. Atieno, Prisca, 2021. "The effects of outdated data and outliers on Kenya's 2019 Global Food Security Index score and rank," Research Theses 334773, Collaborative Masters Program in Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    10. Tesfaye, Wondimagegn & Tirivayi, Nyasha, 2020. "Crop diversity, household welfare and consumption smoothing under risk: Evidence from rural Uganda," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    11. Caviedes, Julián & Ibarra, José Tomás & Calvet-Mir, Laura & Álvarez-Fernández, Santiago & Junqueira, André Braga, 2024. "Indigenous and local knowledge on social-ecological changes is positively associated with livelihood resilience in a Globally Important Agricultural Heritage System," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    12. Pin Li & Jinsuo Zhang, 2019. "Is China’s Energy Supply Sustainable? New Research Model Based on the Exponential Smoothing and GM(1,1) Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-30, January.
    13. Korir, Lilian & Rizov, Marian & Ruto, Eric, 2020. "Food security in Kenya: Insights from a household food demand model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 99-108.
    14. Kalkuhl, Matthias & Wenz, Leonie, 2020. "The impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global panel of regions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    15. Fernando M. Aragón & Francisco Oteiza & Juan Pablo Rud, 2018. "Climate change and agriculture: farmer adaptation to extreme heat," IFS Working Papers W18/06, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    16. Yan Chen & Xiaohong Chen & Hongshan Ai & Xiaoqing Tan, 2022. "Temperature and Migration Intention: Evidence from the Unified National Graduate Entrance Examination in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(16), pages 1-23, August.
    17. Nading Jr., Micheal & Etienne, Xiaoli & Trujillo-Barrera, Andres & Hatzenbuehler, Patrick & Wilder, Brett, 2024. "Factors Influencing Wheat Marketing Decisions: Insights from Idaho Focus Groups," Western Economics Forum, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 22(1), September.
    18. Fernando M. Arag'on & Francisco Oteiza & Juan Pablo Rud, 2019. "Climate Change and Agriculture: Subsistence Farmers' Response to Extreme Heat," Papers 1902.09204, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2019.
    19. Ding, Song & Tao, Zui & Zhang, Huahan & Li, Yao, 2022. "Forecasting nuclear energy consumption in China and America: An optimized structure-adaptative grey model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PA).
    20. Kaoutar Benkachchach & Khadija El Issaoui, 2025. "Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change in Morocco: Between Vulnerability and Resilience [Adaptation agricole au changement climatique au Maroc : entre vulnérabilité et résilience]," Post-Print hal-05036861, HAL.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:agfoec:v:12:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1186_s40100-024-00296-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.