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Migration strategies of crisis-stricken youth in an enlarged European Union 1

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Kahanec

    (Central European University, IZA and CELSI)

  • Brian Fabo

    (CELSI)

Abstract

This article studies the migration response of young people from new EU Member States to disparate conditions in an enlarged European Union at the onset of the Great Recession. We use Eurobarometer data and probabilistic econometric models to identify the key drivers of the intention to work in another Member State of the European Economic Area (EEA) and the expected duration of stays abroad. We find that migration intentions are high among those not married and among males with children, but both categories are also over-represented among people with only temporary as opposed to long-term or permanent migration plans. Whereas age affects migration intentions negatively, education has no effect on whether working abroad is envisaged. However, conditional on envisaging working abroad, completion of education (if after the 16th birthday) is associated with long-term (at least five years), but not permanent, migration plans. These results suggest a potential for brain circulation rather than brain drain. Finally, we find that socio-demographic variables explain about as much variation of migration intentions as self-reported push and pull factors and migration constraints.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Kahanec & Brian Fabo, 2013. "Migration strategies of crisis-stricken youth in an enlarged European Union 1," Transfer: European Review of Labour and Research, , vol. 19(3), pages 365-380, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:treure:v:19:y:2013:i:3:p:365-380
    DOI: 10.1177/1024258913493701
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Corrado Giulietti & Martin Guzi & Martin Kahanec & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2013. "Unemployment benefits and immigration: evidence from the EU," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(1), pages 24-38, March.
    2. Corrado Giulietti & Martin Guzi & Martin Kahanec & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2013. "Unemployment benefits and immigration: evidence from the EU," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(1), pages 24-38, March.
    3. Anzelika Zaiceva & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2008. "Scale, diversity, and determinants of labour migration in Europe," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 24(3), pages 428-452, Autumn.
    4. Martin Kahanec & Klaus F. Zimmermann (ed.), 2010. "EU Labor Markets After Post-Enlargement Migration," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-642-02242-5, October.
    5. Jeffrey Sommers & Charles Woolfson, 2008. "Trajectories of Entropy and “the Labour Question”: The Political Economy of Post-communist Migration in the New Europe," Journal of Contemporary Central and Eastern Europe, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 55-71.
    6. Zimmermann, Klaus F. (ed.), 2005. "European Migration: What Do We Know?," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199257355.
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    2. Halim,Daniel Zefanya & Seetahul,Suneha, 2023. "Why Do People Move ? A Data-Driven Approach to Identifying and PredictingGender-Specific Aspirations to Migrate," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10396, The World Bank.

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