Dare to Dream: A Vignette Survey on Self-Selection in Secondary Education Track Choice

This article investigates applications to schools on the highest secondary track in Hungary (grammar schools). In Hungary, primary school pupils can apply to any secondary school. Pupils’ primary school grades play a crucial role only in the admissions procedure, and the exact cut-off point for admission is not known at the time of application. Pupils, however, might adjust their preferences according to their school grades and thus may not apply to schools on their preferred track. Dealing with the endogeneity of pupils’ preferences, the article applies an experimental vignette study. The respondents are primary school pupils who will shortly be applying to secondary schools. They assess the likelihood of a hypothetical pupil (described in the vignette) applying to schools on the highest track. The characteristics of the ‘vignette-person’ (such as his or her grades and preferences) are randomly allocated, and thus preferences are exogenous to grades. The results show no interaction between preferences and grades, which means that a clearly positive preference for grammar school does not compensate for poor grades. This may lead to self-selection, if pupils with a clearly positive preference for grammar school but poor primary school grades do not apply to their preferred secondary track. Since admission cut-off points are not known ahead of application, ignorance of the schools’ requirements is assumed to lie behind this self-selection. The article discusses the implications of the findings and suggests that schools should provide transparent information for applicants about the grades of pupils who have been admitted to those schools in the past.