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A Replication of “Millionaire Migration and State Taxation of Top Incomes*

* This paper is a replication of an original study

Author

Listed:
  • Roger S. Cohen
  • Andrew E. Lai
  • Charles Steindel

Abstract

We reevaluate Young and Varner’s (YV) study of the effect of New Jersey’s 2004 income tax increase on migration. The 2004 “millionaires’ tax†raised New Jersey’s marginal income tax rate from 6.37 percent to 8.97 percent on incomes over US$500,000. YV reported that the tax change apparently had no effect on net out-migration of affected taxpayers (relative to other affluent taxpayers); however, this result appears to be due to their modeling New Jersey out-migration and in-migration simultaneously to determine net migration effects. Correcting for this, we find a statistically significant increase in the out-migration of taxpayers making over US$500,000 of roughly eighty per year in the years following the tax change. Given that the increase likely spurred out-migration in groups not directly taxed and discouraged in-migration, our estimates may understate the actual impact of the tax on New Jersey net out-migration.

Suggested Citation

  • Roger S. Cohen & Andrew E. Lai & Charles Steindel, 2015. "A Replication of “Millionaire Migration and State Taxation of Top Incomes," Public Finance Review, , vol. 43(2), pages 206-225, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:pubfin:v:43:y:2015:i:2:p:206-225
    DOI: 10.1177/1091142114537893
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769, December.
    2. Young, Cristobal & Varner, Charles, 2011. "Millionaire Migration and State Taxation of Top Incomes: Evidence From a Natural Experiment," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 64(2), pages 255-283, June.
    3. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cristobal Young & Charles Varner, 2015. "A Reply to “A Replication of “Millionaire Migration and State Taxation of Top Incomes," Public Finance Review, , vol. 43(2), pages 226-234, March.

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    Replication

    This item is a replication of:
  • Young, Cristobal & Varner, Charles, 2011. "Millionaire Migration and State Taxation of Top Incomes: Evidence From a Natural Experiment," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 64(2), pages 255-283, June.

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    This item is featured on the following reading lists, Wikipedia, or ReplicationWiki pages:
    1. A Replication of ‘‘Millionaire Migration and State Taxation of Top Incomes: Evidence from a Natural Experiment’’ (National Tax Journal 2011) (PFR 2015) in ReplicationWiki

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