IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/millen/v13y2022i3p387-410.html

The Determinants of Fertility and Economic Uncertainty: An Application of the NARDL Model for Hong Kong and South Korea

Author

Listed:
  • Sudeshna Ghosh

Abstract

This article examines the determinants of fertility, using annual data sets from 1980 to 2017 for two major developed economies of the Asian region, namely Hong Kong (China) and South Korea. The article applies the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model to study the impact of economic uncertainty on fertility decisions in these two countries. Using output volatility measure of economic uncertainty, the study shows that there is an asymmetric impact of economic uncertainty upon fertility decisions. Such an exploration demonstrates the extent of the impact of insecurity in the economy on fertility decisions. Furthermore, the study also explores the impact of infant mortality rate, old-age population, urbanization, income per capita, female employment levels, percentage of women in marriage or union, contraceptive prevalence and human capital formation on fertility decisions in these two advanced economies. The results confirm the asymmetry because the impact of the positive change of uncertainty and the impact of the negative change are not identical. The study concludes that for these major industrialized economies of Asia, economic uncertainty apart from the traditional demographic and economic factors appears to be a crucial factor in impacting fertility decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Sudeshna Ghosh, 2022. "The Determinants of Fertility and Economic Uncertainty: An Application of the NARDL Model for Hong Kong and South Korea," Millennial Asia, , vol. 13(3), pages 387-410, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:millen:v:13:y:2022:i:3:p:387-410
    DOI: 10.1177/09763996211018425
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/09763996211018425
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/09763996211018425?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2015. "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3150-3182, October.
    2. Andrew Cherlin & Erin Cumberworth & S. Philip Morgan & Christopher Wimer, 2013. "The Effects of the Great Recession on Family Structure and Fertility," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 650(1), pages 214-231, November.
    3. Sah, Raaj Kumar, 1991. "The Effects of Child Mortality Changes on Fertility Choice and Parental Welfare," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 582-606, June.
    4. Bhattacharya, Mita & Paramati, Sudharshan Reddy & Ozturk, Ilhan & Bhattacharya, Sankar, 2016. "The effect of renewable energy consumption on economic growth: Evidence from top 38 countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 733-741.
    5. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    6. George Hondroyiannis, 2010. "Fertility Determinants and Economic Uncertainty: An Assessment Using European Panel Data," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 33-50, March.
    7. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad & Marco E. Terrones, 2005. "Growth and Volatility in an Era of Globalization," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(si), pages 31-63.
    8. Schorderet, Yann, 2001. "Revisiting Okun's Law: An Hysteretic Perspective," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt2fb7n2wd, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    9. George Hondroyiannis & Evangelia Papapetrou, 2004. "Demographic Changes and Economic Activityin Greece," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 49-71, March.
    10. Pommeret, Aude & Smith, William T., 2005. "Fertility, volatility, and growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 347-353, June.
    11. Jungho Kim, 2023. "Female education and its impact on fertility," World of Labour, LISER, pages 228-228, May.
    12. Alessandro Cigno, 1998. "Fertility decisions when infant survival is endogenous," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 21-28.
    13. Roy E. Bailey & Marcus J. Chambers, 1998. "The impact of real wage and mortality fluctuations on fertility and nuptiality in precensus England," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 11(3), pages 413-434.
    14. Øystein Kravdal, 2002. "Education and fertility in sub-Saharan africa: Individual and community effects," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 39(2), pages 233-250, May.
    15. World Bank, 2010. "World Development Indicators 2010," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 4373, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. George Hondroyiannis, 2010. "Fertility Determinants and Economic Uncertainty: An Assessment Using European Panel Data," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 33-50, March.
    2. Giray Gozgor & Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin & Peter Rangazas, 2021. "Economic Uncertainty and Fertility," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(3), pages 373-399.
    3. Francisco Climent Diranzo & Robert Meneu Gaya, "undated". "Relaciones de equilibrio entre demografía y crecimiento económico en Espana," Studies on the Spanish Economy 163, FEDEA.
    4. Dănuţ-Vasile Jemna & Mihaela David, 2018. "Post-transitional regional fertility in Romania," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(57), pages 1733-1776.
    5. Guan, Jialin & Kirikkaleli, Dervis & Bibi, Ayesha & Zhang, Weike, 2020. "Natural resources rents nexus with financial development in the presence of globalization: Is the “resource curse” exist or myth?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    6. Marques, António Cardoso & Fuinhas, José Alberto & Neves, Sónia Almeida, 2018. "Ordinary and Special Regimes of electricity generation in Spain: How they interact with economic activity," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1226-1240.
    7. Iorember, Paul Terhemba & Usman, Ojonugwa & Jelilov, Gylych, 2019. "Asymmetric Effects of Renewable Energy Consumption, Trade Openness and Economic Growth on Environmental Quality in Nigeria and South Africa," MPRA Paper 96333, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2019.
    8. Shakoor Ahmed & Khorshed Alam & Afzalur Rashid & Jeff Gow, 2020. "Militarisation, Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth in Myanmar," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 615-641, August.
    9. Kamil Makieła & Błażej Mazur & Jakub Głowacki, 2022. "The Impact of Renewable Energy Supply on Economic Growth and Productivity," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-13, June.
    10. Liang Xie & Xianzhong Mu & Kuanyuting Lu & Dongou Hu & Guangwen Hu, 2023. "The time-varying relationship between CO2 emissions, heterogeneous energy consumption, and economic growth in China," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(8), pages 7769-7793, August.
    11. Adams, Samuel & Klobodu, Edem Kwame Mensah & Apio, Alfred, 2018. "Renewable and non-renewable energy, regime type and economic growth," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 755-767.
    12. Santosh, Kumar, 2009. "Fertility and Birth Spacing Consequences of Childhood Immunization Program: Evidence from India," MPRA Paper 27126, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Pata, Ugur Korkut & Ertugrul, Hasan Murat, 2023. "Do the Kyoto Protocol, geopolitical risks, human capital and natural resources affect the sustainability limit? A new environmental approach based on the LCC hypothesis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    14. Diego Romero-Ávila, 2013. "Is Physical Investment The Key To China'S Growth Miracle?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(4), pages 1948-1971, October.
    15. Dene T. Hurley & Nikolaos Papanikolaou, 2018. "An Investigation of China‐U.S. Bilateral Trade and Exchange Rate Changes Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 37(2), pages 162-179, June.
    16. Muhammad, Anees & Ishfaq, Ahmed, 2011. "Industrial development, agricultural growth, urbanization and environmental Kuznets curve in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 33469, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Nusrate Aziz & Belayet Hossain & Laura Lamb, 2022. "Does green policy pay dividends?," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 24(2), pages 147-172, April.
    18. Pata, Ugur Korkut & Caglar, Abdullah Emre, 2021. "Investigating the EKC hypothesis with renewable energy consumption, human capital, globalization and trade openness for China: Evidence from augmented ARDL approach with a structural break," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    19. Lu, Zhou & Gozgor, Giray & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Padhan, Hemachandra & Yan, Cheng, 2022. "Welfare gains from international trade and renewable energy demand: Evidence from the OECD countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    20. Alam, Mohammad Jahangir & Begum, Ismat Ara & Buysse, Jeroen & Rahman, Sanzidur & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2011. "Dynamic modeling of causal relationship between energy consumption, CO2 emissions and economic growth in India," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 3243-3251, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:millen:v:13:y:2022:i:3:p:387-410. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.