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The Impact of Seeding, Home Continent, and Hosting on FIFA World Cup Results

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  • James Monks

    (University of Richmond, jmonks@richmond.edu)

  • Jared Husch

    (University of Richmond)

Abstract

Every 4 years, Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) organizes one of the largest sporting events in the world, the soccer (football) World Cup tournament. Successful players, teams, and national soccer federations are the recipients of significant financial returns, both directly from FIFA and indirectly through professional and endorsement contracts. The structure of this tournament is such that playing on one's own continent and being a seeded team have significant effects on World Cup success. Specifically, we estimate that the ``continental effect'' increases a team's probability of reaching the final eight by 12% points, whereas being seeded increases one's probability of making the quarterfinals by 26% points.

Suggested Citation

  • James Monks & Jared Husch, 2009. "The Impact of Seeding, Home Continent, and Hosting on FIFA World Cup Results," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 10(4), pages 391-408, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:10:y:2009:i:4:p:391-408
    DOI: 10.1177/1527002508328757
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Plácido Rodríguez & Stefan Késenne & Ruud Koning (ed.), 2015. "The Economics of Competitive Sports," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 15770.
    3. Roberto Gásquez & Vicente Royuela, 2014. "Is Football an Indicator of Development at the International Level?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 117(3), pages 827-848, July.
    4. Jeroen Schokkaert & Johan Swinnen, 2016. "Uncertainty of Outcome Is Higher in the Champions League Than in the European Cup," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 17(2), pages 115-147, February.
    5. Kelly E. Carter, 2018. "The Effect of Labor-Management Complementarities on Production and Efficiency When Management Is Paid but Labor Is Not Paid," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 44(4), pages 535-557, September.
    6. David Pastoriza & Jean-François Plante & Nadjib Lakhlef, 2021. "Are Foreigners at Disadvantage in a Global Labor Market?," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(6), pages 615-638, August.
    7. Oliver Engist & Erik Merkus & Felix Schafmeister, 2021. "The Effect of Seeding on Tournament Outcomes: Evidence From a Regression-Discontinuity Design," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(1), pages 115-136, January.
    8. Danilov, Vyacheslav (Данилов, Вячеслав), 2016. "«…At the end they always win»: Econometric approaches to the prediction of the results of performance of national football teams at major international tournaments ["А Побеждают Всегда..."," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 3, pages 56-68, June.
    9. Jeroen Schokkaert & Johan Swinnen, 2013. "It is Harder, not Easier, to Predict the Winner of the Champions League," LICOS Discussion Papers 32913, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
    10. Neil Longley & Nelson J. Lacey, 2012. "The “Second†Season," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 13(5), pages 471-493, October.
    11. Lapré Michael A. & Palazzolo Elizabeth M., 2022. "Quantifying the impact of imbalanced groups in FIFA Women’s World Cup tournaments 1991–2019," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 18(3), pages 187-199, September.
    12. Lapré Michael A. & Palazzolo Elizabeth M., 2023. "The evolution of seeding systems and the impact of imbalanced groups in FIFA Men’s World Cup tournaments 1954–2022," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 19(4), pages 317-332, December.
    13. Wladimir Andreff & Madeleine Andreff, 2015. "Economic prediction of sport performances from the Beijing Olympics to the 2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa: the notion of surprising sporting outcomes," Post-Print halshs-01244495, HAL.
    14. Scoppa, Vincenzo, 2013. "Fatigue and Team Performance in Soccer: Evidence from the FIFA World Cup and the UEFA European Championship," IZA Discussion Papers 7519, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Ralf Dewenter & Julian Emami Namini, 2013. "How to Make Soccer More Attractive? Rewards for a Victory, the Teams' Offensiveness, and the Home Bias," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 14(1), pages 65-86, February.
    16. Wladimir Andreff & Madeleine Andreff, 2015. "Economic prediction of sport performances from the Beijing Olympics to the 2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa: the notion of surprising sporting outcomes," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01244495, HAL.
    17. Vincenzo Scoppa, 2015. "Fatigue and Team Performance in Soccer," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 16(5), pages 482-507, June.

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