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It is Harder, not Easier, to Predict the Winner of the Champions League

  • Jeroen Schokkaert
  • Johan Swinnen

European Cup football has experienced a major change in format with the introduction of the Champions League in 1992 and a major change in admission rules with direct qualification for multiple teams from the highest ranked leagues in 1999. We show that, in line with popular press reports and other studies, qualification in lower rounds has become more predictable in the Champions League. At the same time, however, outcomes at later stages have become less predictable. We provide evidence and an explanation.

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Paper provided by LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven in its series LICOS Discussion Papers with number 32913.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:lic:licosd:32913
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  1. Eckard, E Woodrow, 2001. "Free Agency, Competitive Balance, and Diminishing Returns to Pennant Contention," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(3), pages 430-43, July.
  2. Stefan Szymanski, 2003. "The Economic Design of Sporting Contests," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 1137-1187, December.
  3. Haan, Marco & Koning, Ruud H. & Witteloostuijn, Arjen van, 2002. "Market forces in European soccer," CCSO Working Papers 200211, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
  4. E. Eckard, 1998. "The NCAA Cartel and Competitive Balance in College Football," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 347-369, June.
  5. Tim Pawlowski & Christoph Breuer & Arnd Hovemann, 2010. "Top Clubs' Performance and the Competitive Situation in European Domestic Football Competitions," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 11(2), pages 186-202, April.
  6. Marco A. Haan & Ruud H. Koning & Arjen van Witteloostuijn, 2012. "The Effects of Institutional Change in European Soccer," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 232(3), pages 318-335, May.
  7. Anthony C. Krautmann & Lawrence Hadley, 2006. "Dynasties versus pennant races: competitive balance in major league baseball," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 287-292.
  8. Roger G. Noll, 2003. "The Organization of Sports Leagues," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 530-551, Winter.
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