IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/ilrrev/v76y2023i2p290-319.html

The Evolving Impact of Robots on Jobs

Author

Listed:
  • John Chung
  • Yong Suk Lee

Abstract

The authors examine the impact of industrial robots on US labor markets between 2005 and 2016. Because some industries adopt robots more intensively, growth in robot stocks more heavily affect local labor markets with larger employment shares in those industries. This robot exposure variation occurs across 722 commuting zones in the continental United States. Analyzing the five-year intervals within this period, the authors find that robot exposure reduces employment in the earlier periods but augments employment in the more recent periods. Similarly, the effect of robot exposure on the local wage is initially negative but gradually rebounds and turns positive in more recent years. The evolving influence of robots is primarily driven by the automotive industry, in which digitization and automation have not only increased labor productivity but also created new tasks. Findings show evidence of spillover effects on other industries within and outside of manufacturing, which may be explained by input-output linkages and aggregate demand effects.

Suggested Citation

  • John Chung & Yong Suk Lee, 2023. "The Evolving Impact of Robots on Jobs," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 76(2), pages 290-319, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:ilrrev:v:76:y:2023:i:2:p:290-319
    DOI: 10.1177/00197939221137822
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00197939221137822
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/00197939221137822?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jay Dixon & Bryan Hong & Lynn Wu, 2021. "The Robot Revolution: Managerial and Employment Consequences for Firms," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(9), pages 5586-5605, September.
    2. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2018. "The Race between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares, and Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(6), pages 1488-1542, June.
    3. Edward W. Felten & Manav Raj & Robert Seamans, 2018. "A Method to Link Advances in Artificial Intelligence to Occupational Abilities," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 108, pages 54-57, May.
    4. Austan D. Goolsbee & Alan B. Krueger, 2015. "A Retrospective Look at Rescuing and Restructuring General Motors and Chrysler," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
    5. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    6. Daron Acemoglu & Claire Lelarge & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "Competing with Robots: Firm-Level Evidence from France," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 383-388, May.
    7. Vasco M Carvalho & Makoto Nirei & Yukiko U Saito & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2021. "Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(2), pages 1255-1321.
    8. David H. Autor & David Dorn, 2013. "The Growth of Low-Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the US Labor Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1553-1597, August.
    9. Erik Brynjolfsson & Daniel Rock & Chad Syverson, 2018. "Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, pages 23-57, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Bresnahan, Timothy F. & Trajtenberg, M., 1995. "General purpose technologies 'Engines of growth'?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 83-108, January.
    11. Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & Isaac Sorkin & Henry Swift, 2020. "Bartik Instruments: What, When, Why, and How," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(8), pages 2586-2624, August.
    12. Karen Eggleston & Yong Suk Lee & Toshiaki Iizuka, 2021. "Robots and Labor in the Service Sector: Evidence from Nursing Homes," NBER Working Papers 28322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Erik Brynjolfsson & Tom Mitchell & Daniel Rock, 2018. "What Can Machines Learn, and What Does It Mean for Occupations and the Economy?," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 108, pages 43-47, May.
    14. Schott, Peter & Yang, Natalie & Eckert, Fabian & Fort, Teresa, 2020. "Imputing Missing Values in the US Census Bureau's County Business Patterns," CEPR Discussion Papers 14352, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    15. Maury Gittleman & Kristen Monaco, 2020. "Truck-Driving Jobs: Are They Headed for Rapid Elimination?," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 73(1), pages 3-24, January.
    16. Wiljan van den Berge, 2019. "Automatic Reaction – What Happens to Workers at Firms that Automate?," CPB Discussion Paper 390.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    17. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Daniel Murphy, 2020. "Effects of Fiscal Policy on Credit Markets," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 119-124, May.
    18. Beata Smarzynska Javorcik, 2004. "Does Foreign Direct Investment Increase the Productivity of Domestic Firms? In Search of Spillovers Through Backward Linkages," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(3), pages 605-627, June.
    19. Wiljan van den Berge, 2019. "Automatic Reaction – What Happens to Workers at Firms that Automate?," CPB Discussion Paper 390, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    20. Timothy F. Bresnahan & Erik Brynjolfsson & Lorin M. Hitt, 2002. "Information Technology, Workplace Organization, and the Demand for Skilled Labor: Firm-Level Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(1), pages 339-376.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lee, Yong Suk & Iizuka, Toshiaki & Eggleston, Karen, 2025. "Robots and labor in nursing homes," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    2. Iztok Palčič & Jasna Prester, 2024. "Effect of Usage of Industrial Robots on Quality, Labor Productivity, Exports and Environment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-16, September.
    3. Shahab Sharfaei & Jakkrit Thavorn, 2025. "From wages to widgets: how minimum wage hikes fuel automation," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    4. Wanqing Liao & Nan Zhao & Zizhe Zhang, 2025. "Can robots improve gender equality: an assessment based on household labor," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 1487-1525, December.
    5. Lee, Seungil & Park, Jungsoo, 2026. "Impact of digital transformation technology adoption on worker wages," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(2).
    6. Wu, Tuolei & Yan, Na & Wang, Jingxian & Chen, Jieping, 2024. "Industry spillover effects of robot applications on labor productivity: Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 1272-1286.
    7. Jurkat, Anne & Klump, Rainer & Schneider, Florian, 2025. "Robots and wages: A meta-analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 541-567.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Genz, Sabrina & Schnabel, Claus, 2021. "Digging into the digital divide: Workers' exposure to digitalization and its consequences for individual employment," Discussion Papers 118, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Chair of Labour and Regional Economics.
    2. Jurkat, Anne & Klump, Rainer & Schneider, Florian, 2025. "Robots and wages: A meta-analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 541-567.
    3. Davide Dottori, 2021. "Robots and employment: evidence from Italy," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(2), pages 739-795, July.
    4. Caselli, Mauro & Fracasso, Andrea & Scicchitano, Sergio & Traverso, Silvio & Tundis, Enrico, 2025. "What workers and robots do: An activity-based analysis of the impact of robotization on changes in local employment," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(1).
    5. Daron Acemoglu & David Autor & Jonathon Hazell & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "AI and Jobs: Evidence from Online Vacancies," NBER Working Papers 28257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Benmelech, Efraim & Zator, Michał, 2025. "Robots and firm investment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    7. David Autor & Caroline Chin & Anna Salomons & Bryan Seegmiller, 2024. "New Frontiers: The Origins and Content of New Work, 1940–2018," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(3), pages 1399-1465.
    8. Cirillo, Valeria & Mina, Andrea & Ricci, Andrea, 2024. "Digital technologies, labor market flows and training: Evidence from Italian employer-employee data," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    9. Arntz, Melanie & Gregory, Terry & Zierahn-Weilage, Ulrich, 2019. "Digitalization and the Future of Work: Macroeconomic Consequences," IZA Discussion Papers 12428, IZA Network @ LISER.
    10. Jay Dixon & Bryan Hong & Lynn Wu, 2021. "The Robot Revolution: Managerial and Employment Consequences for Firms," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(9), pages 5586-5605, September.
    11. Zhang, Xinchun & Sun, Murong & Liu, Jianxu & Xu, Aijia, 2024. "The nexus between industrial robot and employment in China: The effects of technology substitution and technology creation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    12. Stemmler, Henry, 2023. "Automated Deindustrialization: How Global Robotization Affects Emerging Economies—Evidence from Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    13. Arntz, Melanie & Genz, Sabrina & Gregory, Terry & Lehmer, Florian & Zierahn-Weilage, Ulrich, 2024. "De-Routinization in the Fourth Industrial Revolution - Firm-Level Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 16740, IZA Network @ LISER.
    14. Yingjie Xu & Bingchao Zheng & Baojie Guo, 2025. "How Do Industrial Robots Affect the Total Factor Productivity in Manufacturing Enterprises?," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 16(4), pages 14057-14093, October.
    15. Tyna Eloundou & Sam Manning & Pamela Mishkin & Daniel Rock, 2023. "GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models," Papers 2303.10130, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    16. DeStefano, Timothy & Timmis, Jonathan, 2024. "Robots and export quality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    17. Fossen, Frank M. & Sorgner, Alina, 2022. "New digital technologies and heterogeneous wage and employment dynamics in the United States: Evidence from individual-level data," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    18. Sun, Quan & Huang, Minjie, 2026. "Firm-level evidence on AI-driven output expansion and productivity in China," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    19. Gallipoli, Giovanni & Makridis, Christos A., 2018. "Structural transformation and the rise of information technology," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 91-110.
    20. Xin, Baogui & Ye, Xiaopu, 2024. "Robotics applications, inclusive employment and income disparity," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:ilrrev:v:76:y:2023:i:2:p:290-319. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.ilr.cornell.edu .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.