IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/entthe/v44y2020i5p933-963.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Liability of Volatility and How it Changes Over Time Among New Ventures

Author

Listed:
  • Erik Lundmark
  • Alex Coad
  • Julian S. Frankish
  • David J. Storey

Abstract

This article theorizes how short-term revenue volatility affects new venture viability and how such volatility develops over time. Tracking the bank accounts of 6,578 new ventures over a 10-year period, we find that, even after controlling for a range of other factors, short-term revenue volatility is a strong predictor of venture exit. Although short-term revenue volatility is associated with the depletion of buffer resources and financial default, surviving ventures do not, on average, decrease their short-term revenue volatility over time. However, short-term revenue volatility decreases at the cohort level due to higher exit rates of volatile ventures.

Suggested Citation

  • Erik Lundmark & Alex Coad & Julian S. Frankish & David J. Storey, 2020. "The Liability of Volatility and How it Changes Over Time Among New Ventures," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 44(5), pages 933-963, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:entthe:v:44:y:2020:i:5:p:933-963
    DOI: 10.1177/1042258719867564
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1042258719867564
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/1042258719867564?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    2. Rocha, Vera & Carneiro, Anabela & Amorim Varum, Celeste, 2015. "Serial entrepreneurship, learning by doing and self-selection," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 91-106.
    3. Wiklund, Johan & Baker, Ted & Shepherd, Dean, 2010. "The age-effect of financial indicators as buffers against the liability of newness," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 423-437, July.
    4. Julian S. Frankish & Richard G. Roberts & Alex Coad & Taylor C. Spears & David J. Storey, 2013. "Do entrepreneurs really learn? Or do they just tell us that they do?," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 22(1), pages 73-106, February.
    5. Jenkins, Stephen P, 1995. "Easy Estimation Methods for Discrete-Time Duration Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(1), pages 129-138, February.
    6. Maria Minniti & William Bygrave, 2001. "A Dynamic Model of Entrepreneurial Learning," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 25(3), pages 5-16, April.
    7. Casey J. Frid & David M. Wyman & Bentley Coffey, 2016. "Effects of wealth inequality on entrepreneurship," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 895-920, December.
    8. Delmar, Frédéric & McKelvie, Alexander & Wennberg, Karl, 2013. "Untangling the relationships among growth, profitability and survival in new firms," Ratio Working Papers 205, The Ratio Institute.
    9. Jeffrey G. Covin & Kimberly M. Green & Dennis P. Slevin, 2006. "Strategic Process Effects on the Entrepreneurial Orientation–Sales Growth Rate Relationship," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 30(1), pages 57-81, January.
    10. Baldwin, John R. & Rafiquzzaman, Mohammed, 1995. "Selection versus evolutionary adaptation: Learning and post-entry performance," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 501-522, December.
    11. Daniel S. Hamermesh & Gerard A. Pfann, 1996. "Adjustment Costs in Factor Demand," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(3), pages 1264-1292, September.
    12. Richard Ericson & Ariel Pakes, 1995. "Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: A Framework for Empirical Work," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82.
    13. Parker,Simon C., 2018. "The Economics of Entrepreneurship," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781316621714.
    14. Alexander McKelvie & Johan Wiklund, 2010. "Advancing Firm Growth Research: A Focus on Growth Mode Instead of Growth Rate," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 34(2), pages 261-288, March.
    15. Bat Batjargal & Michael Hitt & Anne Tsui & Jean-Luc Arregle & Justin Webb & Toyah Miller, 2013. "Institutional Polycentrism, Entrepreneurs' Social Networks, and New Venture Growth," Post-Print hal-02276709, HAL.
    16. Per Davidsson & Johan Wiklund, 2001. "Levels of Analysis in Entrepreneurship Research: Current Research Practice and Suggestions for the Future," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 25(4), pages 81-100, July.
    17. Stewart Thornhill & Raphael Amit, 2003. "Learning About Failure: Bankruptcy, Firm Age, and the Resource-Based View," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 14(5), pages 497-509, October.
    18. Rotger, Gabriel Pons & Gørtz, Mette & Storey, David J., 2012. "Assessing the effectiveness of guided preparation for new venture creation and performance: Theory and practice," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 506-521.
    19. Wennberg, Karl & Wiklund, Johan & DeTienne, Dawn R. & Cardon, Melissa S., 2010. "Reconceptualizing entrepreneurial exit: Divergent exit routes and their drivers," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 361-375, July.
    20. Diamanto Politis, 2005. "The Process of Entrepreneurial Learning: A Conceptual Framework," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 29(4), pages 399-424, July.
    21. Brown, Ross & Lee, Neil, 2019. "Strapped for cash? Funding for UK high growth SMEs since the global financial crisis," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 37-45.
    22. Unger, Jens M. & Rauch, Andreas & Frese, Michael & Rosenbusch, Nina, 2011. "Human capital and entrepreneurial success: A meta-analytical review," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 341-358, May.
    23. Alexander McKelvie & Anna Brattström & Karl Wennberg, 2017. "How young firms achieve growth: reconciling the roles of growth motivation and innovative activities," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 273-293, August.
    24. Erik Lundmark & Alf Westelius, 2014. "Entrepreneurship as Elixir and Mutagen," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 38(3), pages 575-600, May.
    25. Levinthal, D.A. & Fichman, M., 1991. "Honeymoons and the Liability of Adolescence : A New Perspective on Duration Dependence in Social Organizational Relationships," GSIA Working Papers 1991-34, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    26. Gerrit K.C. Ahlers & Douglas Cumming & Christina Günther & Denis Schweizer, 2015. "Signaling in Equity Crowdfunding," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 39(4), pages 955-980, July.
    27. Alex Coad & Julian S. Frankish & Richard G. Roberts & David J. Storey, 2016. "Predicting new venture survival and growth: Does the fog lift?," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 217-241, June.
    28. Bo, Hong, 2001. "Volatility of sales, expectation errors, and inventory investment: Firm level evidence," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 273-283, August.
    29. Massimo Baù & Philipp Sieger & Kimberly A. Eddleston & Francesco Chirico, 2017. "Fail but Try Again? The Effects of Age, Gender, and Multiple–Owner Experience on Failed Entrepreneurs’ Reentry," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 41(6), pages 909-941, November.
    30. Brian Wu & Anne Marie Knott, 2006. "Entrepreneurial Risk and Market Entry," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(9), pages 1315-1330, September.
    31. Dean Shepherd & Johan Wiklund, 2009. "Are we Comparing Apples with Apples or Apples with Oranges? Appropriateness of Knowledge Accumulation across Growth Studies," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 33(1), pages 105-123, January.
    32. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, April.
    33. Ongena, Steven & Smith, David C., 2000. "What Determines the Number of Bank Relationships? Cross-Country Evidence," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 26-56, January.
    34. Hans K. Hvide & Jarle Møen, 2010. "Lean and Hungry or Fat and Content? Entrepreneurs' Wealth and Start-Up Performance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(8), pages 1242-1258, August.
    35. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-670, May.
    36. Alex Coad, 2018. "Firm age: a survey," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 13-43, January.
    37. Rountree, Brian & Weston, James P. & Allayannis, George, 2008. "Do investors value smooth performance?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(3), pages 237-251, December.
    38. John C. Dencker & Marc Gruber & Sonali K. Shah, 2009. "Pre-Entry Knowledge, Learning, and the Survival of New Firms," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(3), pages 516-537, June.
    39. Wennberg, Karl & Delmar, Frédéric & McKelvie, Alexander, 2016. "Variable risk preferences in new firm growth and survival," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 408-427.
    40. Shepherd, Dean A. & Douglas, Evan J. & Shanley, Mark, 2000. "New venture survival: Ignorance, external shocks, and risk reduction strategies," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 15(5-6), pages 393-410.
    41. Bat Batjargal, 2013. "Institutional Polycentrism, Entrepreneurs??? Social Networks, And New Venture Growth," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1060, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    42. Venkataraman, S. & Van De Ven, Andrew H. & Buckeye, Jeanne & Hudson, Roger, 1990. "Starting up in a turbulent environment: A process model of failure among firms with high customer dependence," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 5(5), pages 277-295, September.
    43. Helena Yli‐Renko & Erkko Autio & Harry J. Sapienza, 2001. "Social capital, knowledge acquisition, and knowledge exploitation in young technology‐based firms," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(6‐7), pages 587-613, June.
    44. Daniel A. Levinthal & Alessandro Marino, 2015. "Three Facets of Organizational Adaptation: Selection, Variety, and Plasticity," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(3), pages 743-755, June.
    45. Per Davidsson & Scott R. Gordon, 2016. "Much Ado about Nothing? The Surprising Persistence of Nascent Entrepreneurs through Macroeconomic Crisis," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 40(4), pages 915-941, July.
    46. Bat Batjargal & Michael Hitt & Anne Tsui & Jean-Luc Arregle & Justin Webb & Toyah Miller, 2013. "Institutional Polycentrism, Entrepreneurs' Social Networks, and New Venture Growth," Post-Print hal-02313079, HAL.
    47. Coad, Alex & Frankish, Julian & Roberts, Richard G. & Storey, David J., 2013. "Growth paths and survival chances: An application of Gambler's Ruin theory," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 615-632.
    48. Baron, Robert A., 1998. "Cognitive mechanisms in entrepreneurship: why and when enterpreneurs think differently than other people," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 275-294, July.
    49. McKelvie, Alexander & Haynie, J. Michael & Gustavsson, Veronica, 2011. "Unpacking the uncertainty construct: Implications for entrepreneurial action," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 273-292, May.
    50. Marcus Box, 2008. "The death of firms: exploring the effects of environment and birth cohort on firm survival in Sweden," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 379-393, December.
    51. Erik Lundmark & Anna Krzeminska & Dean A. Shepherd, 2019. "Images of Entrepreneurship: Exploring Root Metaphors and Expanding Upon Them," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 43(1), pages 138-170, January.
    52. Simon, Mark & Houghton, Susan M. & Aquino, Karl, 2000. "Cognitive biases, risk perception, and venture formation: How individuals decide to start companies," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 113-134, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Atzmon, Morane Batya & Vanderstraeten, Johanna & Albers, Sascha, 2022. "Small-firm growth-enabling capabilities: A framework for young technology-based firms," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    2. Alex Coad & Sven-Olov Daunfeldt & Daniel Halvarsson, 2022. "Amundsen versus Scott: are growth paths related to firm performance?," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 593-610, August.
    3. Seigner, Benedikt David Christian & Milanov, Hana & Lundmark, Erik & Shepherd, Dean A., 2023. "Tweeting like Elon? Provocative language, new-venture status, and audience engagement on social media," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 38(2).
    4. Alex Coad, 2022. "Lumps, Bumps and Jumps in the Firm Growth Process," Foundations and Trends(R) in Entrepreneurship, now publishers, vol. 18(4), pages 212-267, April.
    5. Sofia Fonseca & Maria João Guedes & Vítor Conceição Gonçalves, 2022. "Profitability and size of newly established firms," International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 957-974, June.
    6. Alex Coad & Julian S. Frankish & Albert N. Link, 2020. "The Economic Contribution of a Cohort of New Firms Over Time," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 57(3), pages 519-536, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alex Coad & Masatoshi Kato, 2021. "Growth paths and routes to exit: 'shadow of death' effects for new firms in Japan," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1145-1173, October.
    2. Wennberg, Karl & Delmar, Frédéric & McKelvie, Alexander, 2016. "Variable risk preferences in new firm growth and survival," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 408-427.
    3. Erik Lundmark & Anna Krzeminska & Dean A. Shepherd, 2019. "Images of Entrepreneurship: Exploring Root Metaphors and Expanding Upon Them," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 43(1), pages 138-170, January.
    4. Siepel, Josh & Cowling, Marc & Coad, Alex, 2017. "Non-founder human capital and the long-run growth and survival of high-tech ventures," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 34-43.
    5. Giovanni Dosi & Emanuele Pugliese & Pietro Santoleri, 2017. "Growth and survival of the `fitter'? Evidence from US new-born firms," LEM Papers Series 2017/06, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    6. Delmar, Frédéric & Wallin, Jonas & Nofal, Ahmed Maged, 2022. "Modeling new-firm growth and survival with panel data using event magnitude regression," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 37(5).
    7. Alex Coad & Julian S. Frankish & Richard G. Roberts & David J. Storey, 2016. "Predicting new venture survival and growth: Does the fog lift?," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 217-241, June.
    8. Parker, Simon C., 2013. "Do serial entrepreneurs run successively better-performing businesses?," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 652-666.
    9. Alex Coad & Julian Frankish & Paul Nightingale & Richard Roberts, 2014. "Business experience and start-up size: Buying more lottery tickets next time around?," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 529-547, October.
    10. Daniel Fackler & Claus Schnabel & Joachim Wagner, 2013. "Establishment exits in Germany: the role of size and age," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 683-700, October.
    11. Coad, Alex & Frankish, Julian & Roberts, Richard G. & Storey, David J., 2013. "Growth paths and survival chances: An application of Gambler's Ruin theory," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 615-632.
    12. Cheng, Ruiqi & Yuan, Peng & Jiang, Gongxiong, 2023. "Growth, agglomeration externalities, and survival: Evidence from Chinese manufacturing start-ups," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    13. Sandra Gottschalk & Francis J. Greene & Bettina Müller, 2017. "The impact of habitual entrepreneurial experience on new firm closure outcomes," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 303-321, February.
    14. Pietro Santoleri, 2020. "Innovation and job creation in (high-growth) new firms," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 29(3), pages 731-756.
    15. Canarella, Giorgio & Miller, Stephen M., 2018. "The determinants of growth in the U.S. information and communication technology (ICT) industry: A firm-level analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 259-271.
    16. Sandra Gottschalk & Bettina Müller, 2022. "A second chance for failed entrepreneurs: a good idea?," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 745-767, August.
    17. Huatao Peng & Chen Zhou & Yang Liu, 2020. "Entrepreneurial Experience and Performance: From the Aspect of Sustainable Growth of Enterprises," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-24, September.
    18. Massimo Baù & Philipp Sieger & Kimberly A. Eddleston & Francesco Chirico, 2017. "Fail but Try Again? The Effects of Age, Gender, and Multiple–Owner Experience on Failed Entrepreneurs’ Reentry," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 41(6), pages 909-941, November.
    19. Nason, Robert S. & Wiklund, Johan & McKelvie, Alexander & Hitt, Michael & Yu, Wei, 2019. "Orchestrating boundaries: The effect of R&D boundary permeability on new venture growth," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 63-79.
    20. Simon C. Parker & Thomas Åstebro & David B Audretsch & Robert Blackburn & Andrew Burke & Alex Coad & Marc Cowling & Per Davidsson & Michael Fritsch & Francis Greene & Paul D. Reynolds & Roy Thurik, 2024. "“Remembering David J Storey, a pioneer of the entrepreneurship field”," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 1-21, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:entthe:v:44:y:2020:i:5:p:933-963. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.