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Why is Spot Carbon so Cheap and Future Carbon so Dear? The Term Structure of Carbon Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Don Bredin
  • John Parsons

Abstract

This study examines carbon spot and futures price relationships and the dynamics of the carbon term structure in the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) between 2005-2014. Using spot and futures prices, we calculate an implied cost of carry. According to received theory, the cost of carry is—with some ex-ceptions—just the opportunity cost of money, so that the term structure of the cost of carry should exactly equal the term structure interest rates. However, we show that spot carbon allowances were originally expensive relative to futures, but since late 2008 the situation reversed and spot carbon allowances have been persistently cheap relative to futures prices. This dramatic shift coincides with the onset of the global financial crisis in late 2008 and the ongoing European banking crisis of 2010-2013.

Suggested Citation

  • Don Bredin & John Parsons, 2016. "Why is Spot Carbon so Cheap and Future Carbon so Dear? The Term Structure of Carbon Prices," The Energy Journal, , vol. 37(3), pages 83-108, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:37:y:2016:i:3:p:83-108
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.37.3.dbre
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Qingli Dong & Lanlan Lian & Qichuan Jiang, 2025. "Risk spillover measurement of carbon trading market considering susceptible factors: A network perspective," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 493-521, January.
    2. Saikat Mondal & Rudra P. Pradhan & Vinodh Madhavan & Debaleena Chatterjee & Ann Mary Varghese, 2024. "Carbon Emissions Pricing: Linkages Between EU ETS Spot and Future Prices and Completeness of EU ETS Market," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 23(4), pages 450-470, December.
    3. Azzone, Michele & Baviera, Roberto & Manzoni, Pietro, 2025. "The puzzle of Carbon Allowance spread," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    4. Mohammadehsan Eslahi & Paolo Mazza, 2023. "Can weather variables and electricity demand predict carbon emissions allowances prices? Evidence from the first three phases of the EU ETS," Post-Print hal-04282454, HAL.

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