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The demand for cigarette in Tanzania: A temporal approach


  • Kidane, Asmerom

    (University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania)

  • Hepelwa, Aloyce

    (University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania)

  • Mdadila, Kenneth

    (University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania)

  • Ngeh, Ernest

    (University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania)

  • Hu, Teh Wei

    (University of California, Berkeley)


The study presented here attempts to estimate the effect of increased price of cigarettes on the corresponding consumption in Tanzania. The study is based on household panel survey data that were conducted over three periods in 2008, 2010 and 2012. For each period price is estimated indirectly. The price increase was substantial and higher than the corresponding aggregate Consumer Price Index (CPI). An attempt is made to relate the increase in price with a possible decrease in cigarette consumption. The methods of analysis are descriptive tabular statistics and the «two-equation econometrics» approach. Over the study period, the descriptive approach showed a substantial increase in price but a modest decrease in cigarette consumption prevalence rate, intensity rate and per capita consumption. When a more robust and powerful econometric method was applied, the results showed a substantial decrease in consumption. There was a significant reduction in intensity compared to participation. Between 2008 and 2010 total price elasticity of demand decreased from –0.686 to –0.727. In 2012 the value was –1.139. The reduction in consumption was much higher among the very poor and the poor (–2.387 and –1.967 respectively). When cross classified by age group the youth (20 years or less) showed a high elasticity of –1.672. The results suggest that in a typical African country smokers (who are relatively poor) will react to substantial price increase in a predictable manner. Price elasticity of demand greater than absolute unity need not be unusual.

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  • Kidane, Asmerom & Hepelwa, Aloyce & Mdadila, Kenneth & Ngeh, Ernest & Hu, Teh Wei, 2017. "The demand for cigarette in Tanzania: A temporal approach," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 45, pages 136-143.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0314

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Jha, Prabhat & Chaloupka, Frank (ed.), 2000. "Tobacco Control in Developing Countries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780192632463.
    2. Chaloupka, Frank J. & Warner, Kenneth E., 2000. "The economics of smoking," Handbook of Health Economics, in: A. J. Culyer & J. P. Newhouse (ed.), Handbook of Health Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 29, pages 1539-1627, Elsevier.
    3. C.P. Van Walbeek*, 1996. "Excise Taxes on Tobacco: How Much Scope does the Government Have?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 64(1), pages 12-23, March.
    4. Unknown, 2010. "WHO Technical Manual on Tobacco Tax Administration," University of California at San Francisco, Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education qt8tn2317v, Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education, UC San Francisco.
    5. Cp Van Walbeek, 2002. "The Distributional Impact of Tobacco Excise Increases*(1)," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 70(3), pages 258-267, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Asiya Maskaeva & Zanda Bochkaeva & Joel Mmasa & Mgeni Msafiri, 2022. "The impact of indirect tax on income distribution and poverty in Tanzania," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93(1), pages 103-128, March.
    2. Asiya Maskaeva & Zanda Bochkaeva & Joel Mmasa & Mgeni Msafiri & Eric Iramba, 2019. "Microsimulation analysis of the impact of indirect tax benefits on income distribution and poverty alleviation in Tanzania: An application of TAZMOD," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-16, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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    More about this item


    cigarette; demand; price; smoking participation; smoking intensity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis


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