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Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics? Examples From Finance and Economics

Author

Listed:
  • Karim M. Abadir

    (Imperial College London)

Abstract

Reliable data analysis is one of the hardest tasks in sciences and social sciences. Often misleading and sometimes puzzling results arise when the analysis is done without regard for the special features of the data. In this exposition, I will focus on designing new statistical tools to deal with some prominent questions in Finance and Economics. In particular, I will talk about the following. (1) How to characterize the randomness of variables, motivated by a problem in the pricing of financial options. (2) Uncovering the relation between interest rates on different maturities, now and in the future; the "term structure of interest rates". (3) Modelling the unconventional nonlinear long-memory dynamics that arise from a general-equilibrium economic model, and their implications for exchange rates, stock market indexes, and all macroeconomic variables; with recommendations for trading in financial markets, but also for the design of macroeconomic stabilization policies by governments.

Suggested Citation

  • Karim M. Abadir, 2013. "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics? Examples From Finance and Economics," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 5(4), pages 231-248, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:psc:journl:v:5:y:2013:i:4:p:231-248
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gabriel Talmain, 2007. "Stock Market Valuation and Monopolistic Competition: a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," Working Papers 2007_10, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    2. Beber, Alessandro & Breedon, Francis & Buraschi, Andrea, 2010. "Differences in beliefs and currency risk premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 415-438, December.
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    8. Karim M. Abadir, 2011. "Is the economic crisis over (and out)?," Review of Economic Analysis, Digital Initiatives at the University of Waterloo Library, vol. 3(2), pages 102-108, October.
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    10. Abadir, Karim M. & Rockinger, Michael, 2003. "Density Functionals, With An Option-Pricing Application," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(5), pages 778-811, October.
    11. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    12. Karim Abadir & Gabriel Talmain, 2002. "Aggregation, Persistence and Volatility in a Macro Model," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 69(4), pages 749-779.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    flexible density specification; option pricing; term structure of interest rates; expectation hypothesis; nonlinear long-memory; macroeconomic dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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