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Un modèle théorique de la dynamique de l'hyperinflation : une reformulation du modèle de Cagan

  • Valérie Lelièvre
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    [fre] Cet article présente un modèle théorique visant à expliquer la dynamique de l'hyperinflation. Il constitue une reformulation du modèle de Cagan [1956], dans lequel ont été introduites des hypothèses nouvelles visant à rendre compte de la réalité du processus hyperinflationniste dans les pays d'Amérique Latine. Le modèle développé repose sur une contrainte budgétaire gouvernementale et sur l'équation de demande de monnaie de Cagan. Trois hypothèses nouvelles sont retenues : les anticipations des agents sont rationnelles, la demande de monnaie des agents est instable et l'offre de monnaie est endogène. Dans ce modèle, la dynamique de l'hyperinflation trouve ses origines sur le marché des encaisses réelles: c'est le financement monétaire du déficit budgétaire et le prélèvement des impôts par l'inflation qui vont impulser cette dynamique en agissant sur l'offre et sur la demande d'encaisses des agents. Les différents « chocs budgétaires » (accroissements du déficit budgétaire) vont conduire à un déplacement de l'équilibre et de la courbe de demande sur le marché des encaisses réelles, qui va accélérer et entretenir la dynamique de l'hyperinflation. [eng] Valérie Lelièvre A theoretical model of the dynamics of hyperinflation: Cagan's model revisited. This paper presents a theoretical model whose purpose is to explain the dynamics of hyperinflation. It is a reformulation of Cagan's 1956 model in which hypothesis are added to explain the reality of hyperinflationist process in Latin America. The model includes a government budget constraint and the money demand equation of Cagan's model. Three new hypothesis are introduced: expectations are rational, the money demand is unstable and money supply is endogeneous. Dynamics hyperinflation's origins are situated on real balance market: fiscal deficit financed by printing money and inflation taxes launch hyperinflation by acting on supply and demand on real balance. "Budgetary shocks" conduce to a shifting of demand and equilibrium on real cash market which accelerate and emphasize hyperinflation's dynamics.

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    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue française d'économie.

    Volume (Year): 10 (1995)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 115-133

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:rfreco:rfeco_0769-0479_1995_num_10_1_974
    Note: DOI:10.3406/rfeco.1995.974
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    1. Bruno, Michael, 1989. "Econometrics and the Design of Economic Reform," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 275-306, March.
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