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Le rôle du changement technique dans le double dividende d'écotaxes

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  • Jean-Charles Hourcade
  • Frédéric Ghersi

Abstract

[eng] The Role of Technological Progress in the Double Dividend of Carbon Taxes . by Jean-Charles Hourcade and Frédéric Ghersi . Modelling work on the macro-economic effects of carbon taxes has confirmed that a "weak" form of double dividend exists when the revenue raised is used to reduce the most distortionary taxes. However, it has also found restrictive conditions for a "strong" form of double dividend with a positive impact on both the environment and growth. This paper shows that the "strong" dividend is sensitive to assumptions about the labour market, energy consumption behaviour, substitution effects in the production process, and crowding-out effects resulting from the ratio of emissions-reducing investments to other investments. The paper starts with a brief review of the current debates on double dividends. It then presents a series of analytical tests to show how technological progress assumptions change the macro-economic parameters involved in the case of ploughing the revenue from the new taxes into reducing payroll deductions. Last but not least, numerical applications to France define the scope of validity for a strong second dividend (in terms of household consumption and employment) resulting from different assumptions about the adjustment of technology and consumer choices to new prices. [fre] Les travaux sur les impacts macro-économiques d'écotaxes ont confirmé l'existence d'une forme « faible » de double dividende si leur produit est utilisé pour réduire les taxes préexistantes les plus distorsives ; mais elles ont mis en évidence des conditions restrictives quant à l'obtention d'une forme « forte » de double dividende avec un impact positif à la fois sur la croissance et l'environnement. On montre ici que l'obtention de la forme « forte » est sensible aux hypothèses faites concernant le marché du travail, les comportements de consommation d'énergie, les effets de substitution dans l'appareil productif, les effets d'éviction entre investissements de réduction des émissions et autres investissements. Après une réévaluation rapide de l'état actuel des débats, une série de tests à but strictement analytique fait apparaître comment les hypothèses sur le changement technique modifient les paramètres macro-économiques mis enjeu dans le cas d'un recyclage du produit des nouvelles fiscalités vers une baisse des prélèvements sur le travail. Une application numérique à la France permet dans un troisième temps de délimiter l'espace de validité d'un double dividende fort (en termes de consommation des ménages et d'emploi) en fonction d'hypothèses contrastées sur les adaptations de la technologie et des choix des consommateurs aux nouveaux prix relatifs.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Charles Hourcade & Frédéric Ghersi, 2000. "Le rôle du changement technique dans le double dividende d'écotaxes," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 143(2), pages 47-68.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2000_num_143_2_6004
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2000.6004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cremer, Helmuth & Gahvari, Firouz, 1995. "Uncertainty, Optimal Taxation and the Direct versus Indirect Tax Controversy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(432), pages 1165-1179, September.
    2. Olivier Godard & Olivier Beaumais, 1993. "Économie, croissance et environnement. De nouvelles stratégies pour de nouvelles relations," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 44(1), pages 143-176.
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    Cited by:

    1. Claude Henry & Laurence Tubiana, 2000. "Instruments économiques dans la perspective du changement climatique," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 143(2), pages 1-14.
    2. Fabrice Levert & Hervé Guyomard & Alexandre Gohin, 2003. "Impacts économiques d’une réduction des utilisations agricoles des engrais minéraux en France : une analyse en équilibre général," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 157(1), pages 13-30.
    3. Emmanuel Combet & Frédéric Ghersi & Jean Charles Hourcade & Daniel Théry, 2010. "Carbon Tax and Equity : The Importance of Policy Design," Post-Print halshs-00692516, HAL.
    4. Frédéric Ghersi & Jean-Charles Hourcade & Philippe Quirion, 2001. "Marché international du carbone et double dividende : antinomie ou synergie," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 16(2), pages 149-177.
    5. Emmanuel Combet & Frédéric Ghersi & Jean Charles Hourcade, 2009. "Taxe carbone, une mesure socialement régressive ? Vrais problèmes et faux débats," CIRED Working Papers hal-00866409, HAL.
    6. Emmanuel Combet & Frédéric Ghersi & Jean Charles Hourcade & Daniel Théry, 2009. "Need a Carbon Tax be Socially Regressive ? True Challenges and Wrong Debates," CIRED Working Papers hal-00866410, HAL.
    7. Pottier, Antonin & Hourcade, Jean-Charles & Espagne, Etienne, 2014. "Modelling the redirection of technical change: The pitfalls of incorporeal visions of the economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 213-218.
    8. Frédéric Ghersi & Emmanuel Combet & Jean Charles Hourcade & Camille Thubin, 2010. "Économie d'une fiscalité carbone en France - Rapport d'étude réalisée avec le soutien de l'ADEME et de la CFDT‐IRES," Post-Print halshs-00458205, HAL.

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