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Dynamic Nexus between Exchange Rate and Stock Prices in the Major East European Economies

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  • Dejan Živkov
  • Jovan Njegić
  • Vera Mirović

Abstract

This paper investigates the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) between stock returns and exchange rate in four East European emerging markets. Due to persistent long memory and the presence of the asymmetric effect in all asset markets we applied DCC-FIAPARCH model. The estimated negative DCC parameters in all scrutinized countries confirmed that portfoliobalanced theory has predominance in the short run in all selected economies. DCC parameters revealed significant time-varying behaviour, especially during the major crisis periods. By embedding dummy variables in the variance equations, we came to the conclusion that global shocks affect the volatility of DCCs. Particularly, it happened during the Global Financial Crisis and European sovereign debt crisis, but the effects were not linearly equal in all countries. Complementary rolling analysis unveils how conditional volatilities of analysed assets influence DCC. The results suggested that exchange rate conditional volatility has higher influence on DCC than stock conditional volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Dejan Živkov & Jovan Njegić & Vera Mirović, 2016. "Dynamic Nexus between Exchange Rate and Stock Prices in the Major East European Economies," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2016(6), pages 686-705.
  • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2016:y:2016:i:6:id:591:p:686-705
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Salisu, Afees A. & Ndako, Umar B., 2018. "Modelling stock price–exchange rate nexus in OECD countries: A new perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 105-123.
    2. Dejan Zivkov & Suzana Balaban & Jasmina Djuraskovic, 2018. "What Multiscale Approach Can Tell About the Nexus Between Exchange Rate and Stocks in the Major Emerging Markets?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(5), pages 491-512, October.
    3. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:669:p:1-23 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:2018:y:2018:i:3:id:669:p:270-292 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate; East European countries; structural breaks; stocks; DCC-FIAPARCH;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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