IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0312155.html

Impact of geopolitical risks and innovation on global defense stock return

Author

Listed:
  • Oana Panazan
  • Catalin Gheorghe

Abstract

This study conducts a comparative analysis of how geopolitical risk (GPR) and innovation impact stock returns in the defense industry based on data from 75 defense companies across 17 countries and 4 continents. With daily datasets spanning from January 1, 2014 to March 29, 2024, wavelet coherence and wavelet phase differences were used to conduct the analysis. The results revealed that innovation had a greater and more pronounced impact during the entire analysis period compared with the influence of GPR events. GPRs exerted an uneven and heterogeneous impact on global defense stocks and had a concentrated impact during events that generated uncertainty. Overall, we found significant time-varying dependence across a large number of companies at different time frequencies. The COVID-19 pandemic did not have a major impact on companies in the defense industry. Further, GPR events led to increased volatility during the Russia–Ukraine war, leading to increased uncertainty. In addition to the dominant role they play in the world defense market, US companies served as a robust hedge, especially from 2021 to 2022. Defense companies in the UK are more sensitive to both GPR events and innovation, followed by companies in Germany and France. Comparative analysis of the scalograms of China reveals a greater influence of innovation compared with GPR events. Thus, diversification opportunities have been extended from the defense industry in China, offering investors a promising way to capitalize on refuge opportunities during periods of disruption. To mitigate the global rearmament trend, we suggest alternative investment opportunities for different time horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • Oana Panazan & Catalin Gheorghe, 2025. "Impact of geopolitical risks and innovation on global defense stock return," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 20(2), pages 1-21, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0312155
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0312155
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0312155
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0312155&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0312155?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    2. Zhang, Zhengyong & Bouri, Elie & Klein, Tony & Jalkh, Naji, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and the returns and volatility of global defense companies: A new race to arms?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    3. Conlon, Thomas & Corbet, Shaen & Goodell, John W. & Hou, Yang (Greg) & Oxley, Les, 2024. "Financial market information flows when counteracting rogue states: The indirect effects of targeted sanction packages," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 32-62.
    4. Huaijia Zhu & Bo Chen & Huaiqi Zhu, 2024. "How does central enterprise reform promote total factor productivity of defense firms in China?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 1-27, April.
    5. Emmanuel Apergis & Nicholas Apergis, 2017. "The impact of 11/13 Paris terrorist attacks on stock prices: evidence from the international defence industry," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 45-48, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Neuenkirch, Matthias & Repko, Maria & Weber, Enzo, 2025. "Hawks and Doves: Financial market perception of Western support for Ukraine," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    2. Liu, Jie & Chen, Zhenshan & Lin, Gengyan & Zhu, Yinglun, 2024. "Riding the geopolitical storm or dodging bullets: Geopolitical risk timing of mutual funds," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    3. Almeida, José & Gaio, Cristina & Gonçalves, Tiago Cruz, 2024. "Crypto market relationships with bric countries' uncertainty – A wavelet-based approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    4. Klein, Tony, 2024. "Investor behavior in times of conflict: A natural experiment on the interplay of geopolitical risk and defense stocks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 294-313.
    5. Sun, Chentong & Yi, Shangkun & Wu, Fenglin & Li, Yanshuang & Dong, Zibing, 2025. "Mainshocks and aftershocks: Assessing the resilience of Asia-Pacific stock markets amid global financial cycle shocks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    6. Lyócsa, Štefan & Todorova, Neda, 2024. "What drives the uranium sector risk? The role of attention, economic and geopolitical uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    7. Azimli, Asil & Kalmaz, Demet Beton, 2025. "The impact of Russia’s Geopolitical Risk on stock markets’ high-moment risk," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 49(1).
    8. Boufateh, Talel & Saadaoui, Zied & Jiao, Zhilun, 2025. "On the time-varying responses of Fintech stock returns to geopolitical, financial and market sentiment shocks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    9. Viviane Naimy & Tatiana Abou Chedid & Omar Abou Saleh & Nicolas Bitar, 2025. "Redefining volatility forecasting in the aerospace and defense sector: application of CEEMDAN-GARCH models," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-16, December.
    10. Sheenan, Lisa, 2023. "Green bonds, conventional bonds and geopolitical risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    11. Bouri, Elie & Quinn, Barry & Sheenan, Lisa & Tang, Yayan, 2024. "Investigating extreme linkage topology in the aerospace and defence industry," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    12. Wang, Xiao-Qing & Wu, Tong & Zhong, Huaming & Su, Chi-Wei, 2023. "Bubble behaviors in nickel price: What roles do geopolitical risk and speculation play?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    13. Zhang, Zhikai & Wang, Yudong & Xiao, Jihong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2023. "Not all geopolitical shocks are alike: Identifying price dynamics in the crude oil market under tensions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    14. Diakonova, Marina & Molina, Luis & Mueller, Hannes & Pérez, Javier J. & Rauh, Christopher, 2024. "The information content of conflict, social unrest and policy uncertainty measures for macroeconomic forecasting," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(4).
    15. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Manu, Ana-Simona & Lopardo, Gianluigi, 2025. "Verba volant, transcripta manent: what corporate earnings calls reveal about the AI stock rally," Working Paper Series 3093, European Central Bank.
    16. Zhao, Na & Zhang, Lin & Huang, Hui, 2025. "Influence of China's geopolitical risk on corporate dividend policies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    17. Akyildirim, Erdinc & Corbet, Shaen & Ryan, Michael & Mukherjee, Abhishek, 2025. "The influence of maritime freight cost tail risk on publicly traded industrial and transport companies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    18. Alessandro Paolo Rigamonti & Giulio Greco & Mariarita Pierotti & Alessandro Capocchi, 2024. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and earnings management: evidence from commodity firms," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 1615-1649, May.
    19. Zhibing Li & Jia Liu & Jie Liu & Xiaoyu Liu & Yinglun Zhu, 2024. "The causal effect of political risk on the stock market: Evidence from a natural experiment," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(1), pages 145-162, March.
    20. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2022. "Salience theory and the cross-section of stock returns: International and further evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 689-725.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0312155. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.