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Combining epidemiology and economics to assess control of a viral endemic animal disease: Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS)

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  • Pablo Valdes-Donoso
  • Lovell S Jarvis

Abstract

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) is an extremely contagious disease that causes great damage to the U.S. pork industry. PRRS is not subject to official control in the U.S., but most producers adopt control strategies, including vaccination. However, the PRRS virus mutates frequently, facilitating its ability to infect even vaccinated animals. In this paper we analyze how increased vaccination on sow farms reduces PRRS losses and when vaccination is profitable. We develop a SIR model to simulate the spread of an outbreak between and within swine farms located in a region of Minnesota. Then, we estimate economic losses due to PRRS and calculate the benefits of vaccination. We find that increased vaccination of sow farms increases the private profitability of vaccination, and also transmits positive externalities to farms that do not vaccinate. Although vaccination reduces industry losses, a low to moderate vaccine efficacy implies that large PRRS losses remain, even on vaccinated farms. Our approach provides useful insight into the dynamics of an endemic animal disease and the benefits of different vaccination regimens.

Suggested Citation

  • Pablo Valdes-Donoso & Lovell S Jarvis, 2022. "Combining epidemiology and economics to assess control of a viral endemic animal disease: Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS)," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(9), pages 1-20, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0274382
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0274382
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jarvis, Lovell S, 1974. "Cattle as Capital Goods and Ranchers as Portfolio Managers: An Application to the Argentine Cattle Sector," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(3), pages 489-520, May/June.
    2. Cooper, Ian & Mondal, Argha & Antonopoulos, Chris G., 2020. "A SIR model assumption for the spread of COVID-19 in different communities," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    3. David A. Hennessy, 2007. "Behavioral Incentives, Equilibrium Endemic Disease, and Health Management Policy for Farmed Animals," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(3), pages 698-711.
    4. Nadim, Sk Shahid & Chattopadhyay, Joydev, 2020. "Occurrence of backward bifurcation and prediction of disease transmission with imperfect lockdown: A case study on COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    5. Pablo Valdes-Donoso & Lovell S Jarvis & Dave Wright & Julio Alvarez & Andres M Perez, 2016. "Measuring Progress on the Control of Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS) at a Regional Level: The Minnesota N212 Regional Control Project (Rcp) as a Working Example," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(2), pages 1-15, February.
    6. Samui, Piu & Mondal, Jayanta & Khajanchi, Subhas, 2020. "A mathematical model for COVID-19 transmission dynamics with a case study of India," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
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