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How does COVID-19 affect electoral participation? evidence from the French municipal elections

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  • Abdul Noury
  • Abel François
  • Olivier Gergaud
  • Alexandre Garel

Abstract

This article investigates the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak on electoral participation. We study the French municipal elections that took place at the very beginning of the ongoing pandemic and held in over 9,000 municipalities on March 15, 2020. In addition to the simple note that turnout rates decreased to a historically low level, we establish a robust relationship between the depressed turnout rate and the disease. Using various estimation strategies and employing a large number of potential confounding factors, we find that the participation rate decreases with city proximity to COVID-19 clusters. Furthermore, the proximity has conditioned impacts according to the proportion of elderly –who are the most threatened– within the city. Cities with higher population density, where the risk of infection is higher, and cities where only one list ran at the election, which dramatically reduces competitiveness, experienced differentiated effects of distance.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdul Noury & Abel François & Olivier Gergaud & Alexandre Garel, 2021. "How does COVID-19 affect electoral participation? evidence from the French municipal elections," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(2), pages 1-16, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0247026
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0247026
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    3. Massimo Bordignon & Federico Franzoni & Matteo Gamalerio, 2023. "Is Populism reversible? Evidence from Italian local elections during the pandemic," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def124, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    4. Picchio, Matteo & Santolini, Raffaella, 2022. "The COVID-19 pandemic’s effects on voter turnout," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    5. Gutiérrez, Emilio & Meriläinen, Jaakko & Ponce de León, Máximo, 2024. "Worth a shot? The political economy of government responsiveness in times of crisis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    6. Frédéric Docquier & Stefano Iandolo & Hillel Rapoport & Riccardo Turati & Gonzague Vannoorenberghe, 2024. "Populism and the skill content of globalisation," PSE Working Papers halshs-04960427, HAL.
    7. Marco Frank & David Stadelmann & Benno Torgler, 2023. "Higher turnout increases incumbency advantages: Evidence from mayoral elections," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 529-555, July.
    8. Leininger, Arndt & Wagner, Aiko, 2021. "Wählen in der Pandemie: Herausforderungen und Konsequenzen," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 91-100.

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