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Scenario Analysis and Path Selection of Low-Carbon Transformation in China Based on a Modified IPAT Model

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  • Liang Chen
  • Zhifeng Yang
  • Bin Chen

Abstract

This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO2 emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs) reformulated as the Kaya equation, is extended to analyze and predict the relations between human activities and the environment. Four scenarios of CO2 emissions are used including business as usual (BAU), energy efficiency improvement scenario (EEI), low carbon scenario (LC) and enhanced low carbon scenario (ELC). The results show that carbon intensity will be reduced by 40–45% as scheduled and economic growth rate will be 6% in China under LC scenario by 2020. The LC scenario, as the most appropriate and the most feasible scheme for China’s low-carbon development in the future, can maximize the harmonious development of economy, society, energy and environmental systems. Assuming China's development follows the LC scenario, the paper further gives four paths of low-carbon transformation in China: technological innovation, industrial structure optimization, energy structure optimization and policy guidance.

Suggested Citation

  • Liang Chen & Zhifeng Yang & Bin Chen, 2013. "Scenario Analysis and Path Selection of Low-Carbon Transformation in China Based on a Modified IPAT Model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(10), pages 1-9, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0077699
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0077699
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    Cited by:

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    3. Tao, Yu & Li, Feng & Liu, Xusheng & Zhao, Dan & Sun, Xiao & Xu, Lianfang, 2015. "Variation in ecosystem services across an urbanization gradient: A study of terrestrial carbon stocks from Changzhou, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 318(C), pages 210-216.
    4. Renquan Huang & Jing Tian, 2022. "Dynamic Scenario Analysis of Science and Technology Innovation to Support Chinese Cities in Achieving the “Double Carbon” Goal: A Case Study of Xi’an City," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(22), pages 1-19, November.
    5. Jiang, Jingjing & Ye, Bin & Liu, Junguo, 2019. "Research on the peak of CO2 emissions in the developing world: Current progress and future prospect," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 186-203.
    6. Tan, Xianchun & Dong, Lele & Chen, Dexue & Gu, Baihe & Zeng, Yuan, 2016. "China’s regional CO2 emissions reduction potential: A study of Chongqing city," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1345-1354.
    7. Liu, Gengyuan & Hao, Yan & Zhou, Yun & Yang, Zhifeng & Zhang, Yan & Su, Meirong, 2016. "China's low-carbon industrial transformation assessment based on Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index model," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 156-170.

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