IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

A local-scale low-carbon plan based on the STIRPAT model and the scenario method: The case of Minhang District, Shanghai, China


  • Wang, Mingwei
  • Che, Yue
  • Yang, Kai
  • Wang, Min
  • Xiong, Lijun
  • Huang, Yuchi


To achieve a goal of reducing the emission intensity of carbon dioxide in 2020 by 40–45% relative to 2005 in China, the framework for a low-carbon scenario was developed on a small scale in Minhang District, Shanghai. The STIRPAT model was employed to reveal the factors that contribute to CO2 emissions in this district: the increase of population, affluence and urbanisation level would increase CO2 emissions, but energy intensity would decrease. Stakeholder involvement was another key component of the framework, and in this case, several rounds of negotiation and feedback resulted in fifteen final scenarios with the estimations of CO2 emissions in 2015. For the low-carbon development plan of Minhang District, the model considered the actual capacity and development potential of this district, the best scenario combining with the high rates of affluence growing and energy intensity reducing as well as the middle rates of population growth and urbanisation level. The final CO2 emissions of this scenario were 66.1Mt in 2015. Based on these results, strategic suggestions have been proposed to reduce future energy intensity in Minhang District through industrial and energy resource structure reformation, lifestyle change and the transportation system improvement in this district.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Mingwei & Che, Yue & Yang, Kai & Wang, Min & Xiong, Lijun & Huang, Yuchi, 2011. "A local-scale low-carbon plan based on the STIRPAT model and the scenario method: The case of Minhang District, Shanghai, China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6981-6990.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:11:p:6981-6990 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.07.041

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Shi, Anqing, 2003. "The impact of population pressure on global carbon dioxide emissions, 1975-1996: evidence from pooled cross-country data," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 29-42, February.
    2. Shrestha, Ram M. & Rajbhandari, Salony, 2010. "Energy and environmental implications of carbon emission reduction targets: Case of Kathmandu Valley, Nepal," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 4818-4827, September.
    3. Druckman, Angela & Jackson, Tim, 2009. "The carbon footprint of UK households 1990-2004: A socio-economically disaggregated, quasi-multi-regional input-output model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(7), pages 2066-2077, May.
    4. Jia, Junsong & Deng, Hongbing & Duan, Jing & Zhao, Jingzhu, 2009. "Analysis of the major drivers of the ecological footprint using the STIRPAT model and the PLS method--A case study in Henan Province, China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(11), pages 2818-2824, September.
    5. Ru, Guo & Xiaojing, Cao & Xinyu, Yang & Yankuan, Li & Dahe, Jiang & Fengting, Li, 2010. "The strategy of energy-related carbon emission reduction in Shanghai," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 633-638, January.
    6. York, Richard & Rosa, Eugene A. & Dietz, Thomas, 2003. "STIRPAT, IPAT and ImPACT: analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 351-365, October.
    7. Mander, Sarah. L. & Bows, Alice & Anderson, Kevin. L. & Shackley, Simon & Agnolucci, Paolo & Ekins, Paul, 2008. "The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios--Part I: Development of a backcasting methodology with stakeholder participation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 3754-3763, October.
    8. James Cramer, 1998. "Population growth and air quality in California," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 35(1), pages 45-56, February.
    9. Gomi, Kei & Shimada, Kouji & Matsuoka, Yuzuru, 2010. "A low-carbon scenario creation method for a local-scale economy and its application in Kyoto city," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 4783-4796, September.
    10. Richard York & Eugene A. Rosa & Thomas Dietz, 2002. "Bridging Environmental Science with Environmental Policy: Plasticity of Population, Affluence, and Technology," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 83(1), pages 18-34.
    11. Shimada, Koji & Tanaka, Yoshitaka & Gomi, Kei & Matsuoka, Yuzuru, 2007. "Developing a long-term local society design methodology towards a low-carbon economy: An application to Shiga Prefecture in Japan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 4688-4703, September.
    12. Feng, Kuishuang & Hubacek, Klaus & Guan, Dabo, 2009. "Lifestyles, technology and CO2 emissions in China: A regional comparative analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 145-154, November.
    13. Kwon, Tae-Hyeong, 2005. "Decomposition of factors determining the trend of CO2 emissions from car travel in Great Britain (1970-2000)," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 261-275, April.
    14. Jaffe, Adam B. & Stavins, Robert N., 1994. "The energy-efficiency gap What does it mean?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(10), pages 804-810, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. repec:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:5:p:825-:d:98720 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Ju, Liwei & Tan, Zhongfu & Li, Huanhuan & Tan, Qingkun & Yu, Xiaobao & Song, Xiaohua, 2016. "Multi-objective operation optimization and evaluation model for CCHP and renewable energy based hybrid energy system driven by distributed energy resources in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 322-340.
    3. Wang, Hongsheng & Lei, Yue & Wang, Haikun & Liu, Miaomiao & Yang, Jie & Bi, Jun, 2013. "Carbon reduction potentials of China's industrial parks: A case study of Suzhou Industry Park," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 668-675.
    4. Jinying Li & Jianfeng Shi & Jinchao Li, 2016. "Exploring Reduction Potential of Carbon Intensity Based on Back Propagation Neural Network and Scenario Analysis: A Case of Beijing, China," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(8), pages 1-17, August.
    5. Yu, Shiwei & Agbemabiese, Lawrence & Zhang, Junjie, 2016. "Estimating the carbon abatement potential of economic sectors in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 107-118.
    6. Haitao Zheng & Jie Hu & Rong Guan & Shanshan Wang, 2016. "Examining Determinants of CO 2 Emissions in 73 Cities in China," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(12), pages 1-17, December.
    7. repec:eee:energy:v:141:y:2017:i:c:p:273-289 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Ma, Zhixiao & Xue, Bing & Geng, Yong & Ren, Wanxia & Fujita, Tsuyoshi & Zhang, Zilong & Puppim de Oliveira, Jose A. & Jacques, David A. & Xi, Fengming, 2013. "Co-benefits analysis on climate change and environmental effects of wind-power: A case study from Xinjiang, China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 35-42.
    9. Zhang, Chuanguo & Lin, Yan, 2012. "Panel estimation for urbanization, energy consumption and CO2 emissions: A regional analysis in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 488-498.
    10. repec:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:12:p:2237-:d:121477 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:12:p:2342-:d:123126 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Shuai, Chenyang & Shen, Liyin & Jiao, Liudan & Wu, Ya & Tan, Yongtao, 2017. "Identifying key impact factors on carbon emission: Evidences from panel and time-series data of 125 countries from 1990 to 2011," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 310-325.
    13. Xu, Bin & Lin, Boqiang, 2015. "How industrialization and urbanization process impacts on CO2 emissions in China: Evidence from nonparametric additive regression models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 188-202.
    14. Wang, Ping & Wu, Wanshui & Zhu, Bangzhu & Wei, Yiming, 2013. "Examining the impact factors of energy-related CO2 emissions using the STIRPAT model in Guangdong Province, China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 65-71.


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:11:p:6981-6990. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.