A local-scale low-carbon plan based on the STIRPAT model and the scenario method: The case of Minhang District, Shanghai, China
To achieve a goal of reducing the emission intensity of carbon dioxide in 2020 by 40–45% relative to 2005 in China, the framework for a low-carbon scenario was developed on a small scale in Minhang District, Shanghai. The STIRPAT model was employed to reveal the factors that contribute to CO2 emissions in this district: the increase of population, affluence and urbanisation level would increase CO2 emissions, but energy intensity would decrease. Stakeholder involvement was another key component of the framework, and in this case, several rounds of negotiation and feedback resulted in fifteen final scenarios with the estimations of CO2 emissions in 2015. For the low-carbon development plan of Minhang District, the model considered the actual capacity and development potential of this district, the best scenario combining with the high rates of affluence growing and energy intensity reducing as well as the middle rates of population growth and urbanisation level. The final CO2 emissions of this scenario were 66.1Mt in 2015. Based on these results, strategic suggestions have been proposed to reduce future energy intensity in Minhang District through industrial and energy resource structure reformation, lifestyle change and the transportation system improvement in this district.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Richard York & Eugene A. Rosa & Thomas Dietz, 2002. "Bridging Environmental Science with Environmental Policy: Plasticity of Population, Affluence, and Technology," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 83(1), pages 18-34.
- James Cramer, 1998. "Population growth and air quality in California," Demography, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 45-56, February.
- Jia, Junsong & Deng, Hongbing & Duan, Jing & Zhao, Jingzhu, 2009. "Analysis of the major drivers of the ecological footprint using the STIRPAT model and the PLS method--A case study in Henan Province, China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(11), pages 2818-2824, September.
- Shimada, Koji & Tanaka, Yoshitaka & Gomi, Kei & Matsuoka, Yuzuru, 2007. "Developing a long-term local society design methodology towards a low-carbon economy: An application to Shiga Prefecture in Japan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 4688-4703, September.
- Druckman, Angela & Jackson, Tim, 2009. "The carbon footprint of UK households 1990-2004: A socio-economically disaggregated, quasi-multi-regional input-output model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(7), pages 2066-2077, May.
- Shi, Anqing, 2003. "The impact of population pressure on global carbon dioxide emissions, 1975-1996: evidence from pooled cross-country data," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 29-42, February.
- Jaffe, Adam B. & Stavins, Robert N., 1994. "The energy-efficiency gap What does it mean?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(10), pages 804-810, October.
- Ru, Guo & Xiaojing, Cao & Xinyu, Yang & Yankuan, Li & Dahe, Jiang & Fengting, Li, 2010. "The strategy of energy-related carbon emission reduction in Shanghai," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 633-638, January.
- Feng, Kuishuang & Hubacek, Klaus & Guan, Dabo, 2009. "Lifestyles, technology and CO2 emissions in China: A regional comparative analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 145-154, November.
- Mander, Sarah. L. & Bows, Alice & Anderson, Kevin. L. & Shackley, Simon & Agnolucci, Paolo & Ekins, Paul, 2008. "The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios--Part I: Development of a backcasting methodology with stakeholder participation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 3754-3763, October.
- Gomi, Kei & Shimada, Kouji & Matsuoka, Yuzuru, 2010. "A low-carbon scenario creation method for a local-scale economy and its application in Kyoto city," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 4783-4796, September.
- Shrestha, Ram M. & Rajbhandari, Salony, 2010. "Energy and environmental implications of carbon emission reduction targets: Case of Kathmandu Valley, Nepal," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 4818-4827, September.
- York, Richard & Rosa, Eugene A. & Dietz, Thomas, 2003. "STIRPAT, IPAT and ImPACT: analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 351-365, October.
- Kwon, Tae-Hyeong, 2005. "Decomposition of factors determining the trend of CO2 emissions from car travel in Great Britain (1970-2000)," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 261-275, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:11:p:6981-6990. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.