IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v39y2011i11p6981-6990.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A local-scale low-carbon plan based on the STIRPAT model and the scenario method: The case of Minhang District, Shanghai, China

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Mingwei
  • Che, Yue
  • Yang, Kai
  • Wang, Min
  • Xiong, Lijun
  • Huang, Yuchi

Abstract

To achieve a goal of reducing the emission intensity of carbon dioxide in 2020 by 40–45% relative to 2005 in China, the framework for a low-carbon scenario was developed on a small scale in Minhang District, Shanghai. The STIRPAT model was employed to reveal the factors that contribute to CO2 emissions in this district: the increase of population, affluence and urbanisation level would increase CO2 emissions, but energy intensity would decrease. Stakeholder involvement was another key component of the framework, and in this case, several rounds of negotiation and feedback resulted in fifteen final scenarios with the estimations of CO2 emissions in 2015. For the low-carbon development plan of Minhang District, the model considered the actual capacity and development potential of this district, the best scenario combining with the high rates of affluence growing and energy intensity reducing as well as the middle rates of population growth and urbanisation level. The final CO2 emissions of this scenario were 66.1Mt in 2015. Based on these results, strategic suggestions have been proposed to reduce future energy intensity in Minhang District through industrial and energy resource structure reformation, lifestyle change and the transportation system improvement in this district.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Mingwei & Che, Yue & Yang, Kai & Wang, Min & Xiong, Lijun & Huang, Yuchi, 2011. "A local-scale low-carbon plan based on the STIRPAT model and the scenario method: The case of Minhang District, Shanghai, China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6981-6990.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:11:p:6981-6990
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.07.041
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421511005738
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.07.041?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shi, Anqing, 2003. "The impact of population pressure on global carbon dioxide emissions, 1975-1996: evidence from pooled cross-country data," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 29-42, February.
    2. Shrestha, Ram M. & Rajbhandari, Salony, 2010. "Energy and environmental implications of carbon emission reduction targets: Case of Kathmandu Valley, Nepal," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 4818-4827, September.
    3. Druckman, Angela & Jackson, Tim, 2009. "The carbon footprint of UK households 1990-2004: A socio-economically disaggregated, quasi-multi-regional input-output model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(7), pages 2066-2077, May.
    4. Jia, Junsong & Deng, Hongbing & Duan, Jing & Zhao, Jingzhu, 2009. "Analysis of the major drivers of the ecological footprint using the STIRPAT model and the PLS method--A case study in Henan Province, China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(11), pages 2818-2824, September.
    5. Ru, Guo & Xiaojing, Cao & Xinyu, Yang & Yankuan, Li & Dahe, Jiang & Fengting, Li, 2010. "The strategy of energy-related carbon emission reduction in Shanghai," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 633-638, January.
    6. York, Richard & Rosa, Eugene A. & Dietz, Thomas, 2003. "STIRPAT, IPAT and ImPACT: analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 351-365, October.
    7. Mander, Sarah. L. & Bows, Alice & Anderson, Kevin. L. & Shackley, Simon & Agnolucci, Paolo & Ekins, Paul, 2008. "The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios--Part I: Development of a backcasting methodology with stakeholder participation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 3754-3763, October.
    8. James Cramer, 1998. "Population growth and air quality in California," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 35(1), pages 45-56, February.
    9. Gomi, Kei & Shimada, Kouji & Matsuoka, Yuzuru, 2010. "A low-carbon scenario creation method for a local-scale economy and its application in Kyoto city," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 4783-4796, September.
    10. Richard York & Eugene A. Rosa & Thomas Dietz, 2002. "Bridging Environmental Science with Environmental Policy: Plasticity of Population, Affluence, and Technology," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 83(1), pages 18-34, March.
    11. Shimada, Koji & Tanaka, Yoshitaka & Gomi, Kei & Matsuoka, Yuzuru, 2007. "Developing a long-term local society design methodology towards a low-carbon economy: An application to Shiga Prefecture in Japan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 4688-4703, September.
    12. Feng, Kuishuang & Hubacek, Klaus & Guan, Dabo, 2009. "Lifestyles, technology and CO2 emissions in China: A regional comparative analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 145-154, November.
    13. Kwon, Tae-Hyeong, 2005. "Decomposition of factors determining the trend of CO2 emissions from car travel in Great Britain (1970-2000)," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 261-275, April.
    14. Jaffe, Adam B. & Stavins, Robert N., 1994. "The energy-efficiency gap What does it mean?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(10), pages 804-810, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shao, Shuai & Yang, Lili & Yu, Mingbo & Yu, Mingliang, 2011. "Estimation, characteristics, and determinants of energy-related industrial CO2 emissions in Shanghai (China), 1994-2009," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 6476-6494, October.
    2. Huijie Yan & Mateo Cordier & Takuro Uehara, 2024. "Future Projections of Global Plastic Pollution: Scenario Analyses and Policy Implications," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-18, January.
    3. Liang Chen & Zhifeng Yang & Bin Chen, 2013. "Scenario Analysis and Path Selection of Low-Carbon Transformation in China Based on a Modified IPAT Model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(10), pages 1-9, October.
    4. Bo Li & Xuejing Liu & Zhenhong Li, 2015. "Using the STIRPAT model to explore the factors driving regional CO 2 emissions: a case of Tianjin, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(3), pages 1667-1685, April.
    5. Zhang, Chuanguo & Lin, Yan, 2012. "Panel estimation for urbanization, energy consumption and CO2 emissions: A regional analysis in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 488-498.
    6. Huijie Yan & Mateo Cordier & Takuro Uehara, 2024. "Future Projections of Global Plastic Pollution: Scenario Analyses and Policy Implications," Post-Print hal-04396682, HAL.
    7. Chang, Chun-Ping & Dong, Minyi & Sui, Bo & Chu, Yin, 2019. "Driving forces of global carbon emissions: From time- and spatial-dynamic perspectives," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 70-80.
    8. Nicole Grunewald & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2009. "Driving Factors of Carbon Dioxide Emissions and the Impact from Kyoto Protocol," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 190, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Xinxuan Cheng & Longfei Fan & Jiachen Wang, 2018. "Can Energy Structure Optimization, Industrial Structure Changes, Technological Improvements, and Central and Local Governance Effectively Reduce Atmospheric Pollution in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-16, February.
    10. York, Richard & Rosa, Eugene A. & Dietz, Thomas, 2003. "STIRPAT, IPAT and ImPACT: analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 351-365, October.
    11. Xi, Fengming & Geng, Yong & Chen, Xudong & Zhang, Yunsong & Wang, Xinbei & Xue, Bing & Dong, Huijuan & Liu, Zhu & Ren, Wanxia & Fujita, Tsuyoshi & Zhu, Qinghua, 2011. "Contributing to local policy making on GHG emission reduction through inventorying and attribution: A case study of Shenyang, China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 5999-6010, October.
    12. Yu Liu & Hongwei Xiao & Ning Zhang, 2016. "Industrial Carbon Emissions of China’s Regions: A Spatial Econometric Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-14, February.
    13. Chen, Kunlun & Wang, Xu & Li, Dan & Li, Zhaohua, 2015. "Driving force of the morphological change of the urban lake ecosystem: A case study of Wuhan, 1990–2013," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 318(C), pages 204-209.
    14. Puliafito, Salvador Enrique & Puliafito, José Luis & Grand, Mariana Conte, 2008. "Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 602-615, April.
    15. Shafiei, Sahar & Salim, Ruhul A., 2014. "Non-renewable and renewable energy consumption and CO2 emissions in OECD countries: A comparative analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 547-556.
    16. Yanan Wang & Wei Chen & Minjuan Zhao & Bowen Wang, 2019. "Analysis of the influencing factors on CO2 emissions at different urbanization levels: regional difference in China based on panel estimation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 96(2), pages 627-645, March.
    17. Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Maruotti, Antonello, 2011. "The impact of urbanization on CO2 emissions: Evidence from developing countries," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(7), pages 1344-1353, May.
    18. Zhang, Chuanguo & Nian, Jiang, 2013. "Panel estimation for transport sector CO2 emissions and its affecting factors: A regional analysis in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 918-926.
    19. Wang, Zhaohua & Yin, Fangchao & Zhang, Yixiang & Zhang, Xian, 2012. "An empirical research on the influencing factors of regional CO2 emissions: Evidence from Beijing city, China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 277-284.
    20. Carmelo J. Le�n & Jorge E. Arana & Anastasia Hern�ndez Alem�n, 2014. "CO 2 Emissions and tourism in developed and less developed countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(16), pages 1169-1173, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:11:p:6981-6990. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.