IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pmed00/1004212.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evaluation of the sugar-sweetened beverage tax in Oakland, United States, 2015–2019: A quasi-experimental and cost-effectiveness study

Author

Listed:
  • Justin S White
  • Sanjay Basu
  • Scott Kaplan
  • Kristine A Madsen
  • Sofia B Villas-Boas
  • Dean Schillinger

Abstract

Background: While a 2021 federal commission recommended that the United States government levy a sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax to improve diabetes prevention and control efforts, evidence is limited regarding the longer-term impacts of SSB taxes on SSB purchases, health outcomes, costs, and cost-effectiveness. This study estimates the impact and cost-effectiveness of an SSB tax levied in Oakland, California. Methods and findings: An SSB tax ($0.01/oz) was implemented on July 1, 2017, in Oakland. The main sample of sales data included 11,627 beverage products, 316 stores, and 172,985,767 product-store-month observations. The main analysis, a longitudinal quasi-experimental difference-in-differences approach, compared changes in beverage purchases at stores in Oakland versus Richmond, California (a nontaxed comparator in the same market area) before and 30 months after tax implementation (through December 31, 2019). Additional estimates used synthetic control methods with comparator stores in Los Angeles, California. Estimates were inputted into a closed-cohort microsimulation model to estimate quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and societal costs (in Oakland) from 6 SSB-associated disease outcomes. In the main analysis, SSB purchases declined by 26.8% (95% CI −39.0 to −14.7, p $100,000 per 10,000 residents) over 10 years, with greater gains over a lifetime horizon. Study limitations include a lack of SSB consumption data and use of sales data primarily from chain stores. Conclusions: An SSB tax levied in Oakland was associated with a substantial decline in volume of SSBs purchased, an association that was sustained more than 2 years after tax implementation. Our study suggests that SSB taxes are effective policy instruments for improving health and generating significant cost savings for society. Justin White and co-workers report an evaluation of the 2017 sugar-sweetened beverage tax enacted in Oakland in California.Why was this study done?: What did the researchers do and find?: What do these findings mean?:

Suggested Citation

  • Justin S White & Sanjay Basu & Scott Kaplan & Kristine A Madsen & Sofia B Villas-Boas & Dean Schillinger, 2023. "Evaluation of the sugar-sweetened beverage tax in Oakland, United States, 2015–2019: A quasi-experimental and cost-effectiveness study," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 20(4), pages 1-20, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pmed00:1004212
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004212
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1004212
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1004212&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pmed.1004212?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anderson, Michael L., 2008. "Multiple Inference and Gender Differences in the Effects of Early Intervention: A Reevaluation of the Abecedarian, Perry Preschool, and Early Training Projects," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103(484), pages 1481-1495.
    2. Rebecca L. C. Taylor & Scott Kaplan & Sofia B. Villas‐Boas & Kevin Jung, 2019. "Soda Wars: The Effect Of A Soda Tax Election On University Beverage Sales," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(3), pages 1480-1496, July.
    3. Muth, Mary K. & Sweitzer, Megan & Brown, Derick & Capogrossi, Kristen & Karns, Shawn A. & Levin, David & Okrent, Abigail & Siegel, Peter & Zhen, Chen, 2016. "Understanding IRI Household-Based and Store-Based Scanner Data," Technical Bulletins 234905, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    4. Knox, Melissa A. & Oddo, Vanessa M. & Walkinshaw, Lina Pinero & Jones-Smith, Jessica, 2020. "Is the public sweet on sugary beverages? Social desirability bias and sweetened beverage taxes," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    5. John Cawley & David Frisvold & David Jones, 2020. "The impact of sugar‐sweetened beverage taxes on purchases: Evidence from four city‐level taxes in the United States," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(10), pages 1289-1306, October.
    6. Jones-Smith, Jessica C. & Knox, Melissa A. & Coe, Norma B. & Walkinshaw, Lina P. & Schoof, John & Hamilton, Deven & Hurvitz, Philip M. & Krieger, James, 2022. "Sweetened beverage taxes: Economic benefits and costs according to household income," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    7. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, December.
    8. Diewert, W E, 1981. "The Measurement of Deadweight Loss Revisited," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(5), pages 1225-1244, September.
    9. Alberto Abadie, 2021. "Using Synthetic Controls: Feasibility, Data Requirements, and Methodological Aspects," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 391-425, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cawley, John & Frisvold, David, 2023. "Review: Taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages: Political economy, and effects on prices, purchases, and consumption," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    2. Hwang, Yujung & Nguyen, Toan, 2025. "Is sex ratio a valid distribution factor in a collective model?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    3. Arne Henningsen & Guy Low & David Wuepper & Tobias Dalhaus & Hugo Storm & Dagim Belay & Stefan Hirsch, 2024. "Estimating Causal Effects with Observational Data: Guidelines for Agricultural and Applied Economists," IFRO Working Paper 2024/03, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
    4. Dennis Shen & Peng Ding & Jasjeet Sekhon & Bin Yu, 2022. "Same Root Different Leaves: Time Series and Cross-Sectional Methods in Panel Data," Papers 2207.14481, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.
    5. Alice Tianbo Zhang & Sasmita Patnaik & Shaily Jha & Shalu Agrawal & Carlos F. Gould & Johannes Urpelainen, 2022. "Evidence of multidimensional gender inequality in energy services from a large-scale household survey in India," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(8), pages 698-707, August.
    6. Jinglong Zhao, 2024. "Experimental Design For Causal Inference Through An Optimization Lens," Papers 2408.09607, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    7. Ron Berman & Ayelet Israeli, 2022. "The Value of Descriptive Analytics: Evidence from Online Retailers," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(6), pages 1074-1096, November.
    8. Hannes Schwandt, 2018. "Wealth Shocks and Health Outcomes: Evidence from Stock Market Fluctuations," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 349-377, October.
    9. Rakshit, Sonali & Sahoo, Soham, 2023. "Biased teachers and gender gap in learning outcomes: Evidence from India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    10. Tilov, Ivan & Weber, Sylvain, 2023. "Heterogeneity in price elasticity of vehicle kilometers traveled: Evidence from micro-level panel data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).
    11. Carlsson, Magnus & Eriksson, Stefan, 2014. "Discrimination in the rental market for apartments," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 41-54.
    12. Hossain, Marup & Mullally, Conner & Mabiso, Athur, 2024. "Occupational and asset adjustments in Tamil Nadu, India: The role of a finance and rebuilding program," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    13. Judite Gonçalves & Roxanne Merenda & João Pereira dos Santos, 2024. "Not so sweet: impacts of a soda tax on producers," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(5), pages 1388-1412, October.
    14. Achyuta Adhvaryu & Namrata Kala & Anant Nyshadham, 2018. "The Skills to Pay the Bills: Returns to On-the-job Soft Skills Training," NBER Working Papers 24313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Huong Thu Le & Ha Trong Nguyen, 2017. "Parental health and children's cognitive and noncognitive development: New evidence from the longitudinal survey of Australian children," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(12), pages 1767-1788, December.
    16. Abouk, Rahi & Courtemanche, Charles & Dave, Dhaval & Feng, Bo & Friedman, Abigail S. & Maclean, Johanna Catherine & Pesko, Michael F. & Sabia, Joseph J. & Safford, Samuel, 2023. "Intended and unintended effects of e-cigarette taxes on youth tobacco use," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    17. Guigonan S. Adjognon & Daan van Soest & Jonas Guthoff, 2021. "Reducing Hunger with Payments for Environmental Services (PES): Experimental Evidence from Burkina Faso," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(3), pages 831-857, May.
    18. Adjognon,Guigonan Serge & Nguyen Huy,Tung & Guthoff,Jonas Christoph & van Soest,Daan, 2022. "Incentivizing Social Learning for the Diffusion of Climate-Smart Agricultural Techniques," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10041, The World Bank.
    19. Johanna Gather & Meike Wollni, 2022. "Setting the standard: Does Rainforest Alliance Certification increase environmental and socio‐economic outcomes for small‐scale coffee producers in Rwanda?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(4), pages 1807-1825, December.
    20. Do Nascimento Miguel, Jérémy, 2024. "Returns to quality in rural agricultural markets: Evidence from wheat markets in Ethiopia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pmed00:1004212. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosmedicine (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.