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Probabilidad de incumplimiento en inversiones de infraestructura: análisis a partir de modelos estructurales de riesgo de crédito || Probability of default in infrastructure projects: analysis from structural models of credit risk

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  • Zapata Quimbayo, Carlos Andrés

    (Observatorio de Economía y Operaciones Numéricas - Universidad Externado de Colombia)

Abstract

Este trabajo tiene como objetivo estimar las probabilidades de incumplimiento en proyectos de infraestructura. Para ello, se analiza la exposición que tienen los prestamistas frente a un estado de incumplimiento. Esta aplicación se realiza al asumir dinámica propia del ratio de cobertura del servicio de la deuda (DSCR) y el perfil de pago determinado por el flujo de efectivo disponible del proyecto, donde estos se modelan estocásticamente siguiendo los mismos supuestos de la teoría de valoración de opciones desarrollado por Black y Scholes (1973) y Merton (1973). De esta forma, mediante la adaptación de modelos estructurales desarrollados para activos ilíquidos, como extensión de los modelos de riesgo de crédito de Merton (1974) y KMV de Moody’s, se analizan los componentes de probabilidad, exposición y pérdidas de los prestamistas en escenarios de incumplimiento.

Suggested Citation

  • Zapata Quimbayo, Carlos Andrés, 2020. "Probabilidad de incumplimiento en inversiones de infraestructura: análisis a partir de modelos estructurales de riesgo de crédito || Probability of default in infrastructure projects: analysis from st," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 30(1), pages 327-345, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pab:rmcpee:v:30:y:2020:i:1:p:327-345
    DOI: 10.46661/revmetodoscuanteconempresa.3508
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    riesgo de crédito; probabilidad de incumplimiento; procesos estocásticos.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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