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Measuring Value-at-Risk in Project Finance Transactions


  • Stefano Gatti
  • Alvaro Rigamonti
  • Francesco Saita
  • Mauro Senati


"Despite the remarkable importance of project finance in international financial markets, no quantitative models to measure and quantify the risk associated with a deal for the project's lenders have been developed yet. The topic has recently become crucial, since the New Basle Capital Accord gives banks a choice of whether to adopt simpler (but possibly higher) standard capital requirements or to develop internal rating models for project finance transactions. The paper proposes how Monte Carlo simulations may be used to derive a Value-at-Risk estimate for project finance deals and discusses the critical issues that must be considered when developing such a model." Copyright 2007 The Authors Journal compilation (c) 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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  • Stefano Gatti & Alvaro Rigamonti & Francesco Saita & Mauro Senati, 2007. "Measuring Value-at-Risk in Project Finance Transactions," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 13(1), pages 135-158.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:13:y:2007:i:1:p:135-158

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Borgonovo, E. & Gatti, S. & Peccati, L., 2010. "What drives value creation in investment projects? An application of sensitivity analysis to project finance transactions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 205(1), pages 227-236, August.
    2. Miranda Sarmento, J. & Renneboog, L.D.R., 2014. "Public-Private Partnerships : Risk Allocation and Value for Money," Discussion Paper 2014-017, Tilburg University, Tilburg Law and Economic Center.
    3. Weber, Florian & Schmid, Thomas & Pietz, Matthäus & Kaserer, Christoph, 2010. "Simulation-based valuation of project finance: does model complexity really matter?," CEFS Working Paper Series 2010-03, Technische Universität München (TUM), Center for Entrepreneurial and Financial Studies (CEFS).
    4. Bonetti, Veronica & Caselli, Stefano & Gatti, Stefano, 2010. "Offtaking agreements and how they impact the cost of funding for project finance deals: A clinical case study of the Quezon Power Ltd Co," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 60-71, April.
    5. Borgonovo, Emanuele & Gatti, Stefano, 2013. "Risk analysis with contractual default. Does covenant breach matter?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 230(2), pages 431-443.
    6. A. Garcia-Bernabeu & F. Mayor-Vitoria & F. Mas-Verdu, 2015. "Project Finance Recent Applications and Future Trends: The State of the Art," International Journal of Business and Economics, College of Business and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 14(2), pages 159-178, December.

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