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Political instability and stock market returns: Evidence from OECD countries

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  • Dimitrios Asteriou
  • Antonios Sarantidis

Abstract

 This paper examines the relationship between political instability and stock market returns using quarterly time series data from 1993 to 2013. In this paper, stock market returns are defined as the returns of the general stock market index and banking index for 18 OECD countries. Five different political instability indicators are constructed in order to measure political uncertainty. The empirical part utilizes the EFA , PCA and GARCH-M methodologies. The findings indicate a direct and an indirect impact between the PI indicators and the returns of the Banking Index and the Overall Stock Market Index. The research contributes to the literature by providing empirical evidence to policy makers on the effects that political instability has on stock markets. Â

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitrios Asteriou & Antonios Sarantidis, 2016. "Political instability and stock market returns: Evidence from OECD countries," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 5(4), pages 113-124.
    • Handle: RePEc:ove:journl:aid:11278
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    File URL: https://reunido.uniovi.es/index.php/EBL/article/view/11278
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    Cited by:

    1. Toan Luu Duc Huynh & Tobias Burggraf, 2020. "If worst comes to worst: Co-movement of global stock markets in the US-China trade war," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 21-30.
    2. Adnan Qubbaja & Subhi Abu Omar, 2019. "The Impact of Political Events on Palestine Securities Exchange Returns: An Empirical Study between (1997-2016)," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 9(3), pages 287-294, July.
    3. Tihana Skrinjaric & Zrinka Orlovic, 2019. "Effects of Economic and Political Events on Stock Returns: Event Study of the Agrokor Case in Croatia," Croatian Economic Survey, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb, vol. 21(1), pages 47-86, June.
    4. Ameet Kumar & Khalid Ahmed & Mujeeb‐u‐Rehman Bhayo & Muhammad Ramzan Kalhoro, 2023. "Banking performance and institutional quality: Evidence from dynamic panel data analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 4717-4737, October.
    5. syed, irfan, 2020. "A new framework of analysis of Political Risk in OECD Countries," MPRA Paper 102636, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Apr 2020.
    6. Darlington Osaremwinda Ogbeide & Osazee Frank Ogieva, 2017. "Modelling Share Price Behaviour in Nigeria," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 17(1), pages 169-186.

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